Human population dynamics and structure — Paper 2 · A Level Environmental Management (AS only) 8291

5 Fig. 5.1 is a model showing the relationship between death rate, birth rate, population size and increasing level of economic development. population size birth rate increasing increasing births and population deaths death rate increasing level of economic development Fig. 5.1 (a) Suggest how the model indicates changing socio-economic conditions. [10] (b) With reference to examples, assess the extent to which LEDCs and MEDCs balance resources with population growth. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

Mark scheme: 5(a) Initially birth rate and death rate are both high and the birth rate is approximately equal to death rate. The population grows slowly and remains low due to high infant mortality and low life expectancy. With increasing economic development and an improvement in medicine and health facilities, the death rate falls and birth rate remains high. With lower infant mortality and increased life expectancy, the population increases exponentially and birth rate is greater than death rate. With continuing economic development, with improvements in education, employment, career opportunities and availability of family planning, the birth rate starts to fall. The death rate remains stable and low and the population size begins to stabilise. Birth rate and death rate are approximately equal. With more economic development a declining population occurs when the birth rate continues to fall, the death rate remains low. Please use level descriptors 1 10 Question Answer Marks 5(b) The question requirements are: • to use examples from both MEDCs and LEDCs • to consider the balance between population and resources • to assess the extent to which there is balance between resources and population growth in countries at different levels of economic development. Indicative content: Countries where resources are balanced with population size have optimum populations. In these countries a balance between resources and population is maintained by preventing or restricting growth of the population through population control measures, for example, migration. Or through the sustainable use of resources such as better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, agro-ecological farming and reducing material use per unit of output. Alternatively, by an increase in the provision of resources through improved technology, including more productive farming methods, for example, genetic engineering to produce higher yielding crops or drought-resistant crops. Countries where resources are not balanced with population size may be overpopulated or underpopulated. Overpopulated countries where there is an increase in the demand for food, energy and raw materials are unsustainable. An increased population would increase the pressure to farm more intensively and cultivate poorer land leading to poorer yields. Overcultivation of arable land will result in soil erosion, degrading soil fertility and crop failures reducing food supply may result. Other countries are underpopulated where there is underutilisation of resources for the population. Please use level descriptors 2 30 Section B descriptor levels: Descriptor Award Mark Consistently meets the level criteria Mark at top of level Meets the criteria, but with some inconsistency Middle, mark to just below top mark Meets most of level criteria, but not all convincingly Just below middle, mark to just above bottom mark On the borderline of this level and the one below Mark at bottom of level level descriptors 1 Level one, 8–10 marks The response: • contains few errors • shows a very good understanding of the question • shows a good use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • provides a balanced answer Level two, 5–7 marks The response: • may contain some errors • shows an adequate understanding of the question • shows some use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • may lack balance Level three, 1–4 marks The response: • may contain errors • shows limited understanding of the question • shows little or no use of data or the information, where appropriate • lacks balance Section B descriptor levels: level descriptors 2 Responses: Level one, 25–30 marks • fulfil all the requirements of the question • contain a very good understanding of the content required • contain a very good balance of content • contain substantial critical and supportive evaluations • make accurate use of relevant vocabulary Level two, 19–24 marks • fulfil most of the requirements of the question • contain a good understanding of the content required • contain a good balance of content • contain some critical and supportive evaluations • make good use of relevant vocabulary Level three, 13–18 marks • fulfil some requirements of the question • contain some understanding of the content required • may contain some limited balance of content • may contain brief evaluations • make some use of relevant vocabulary Level four, 6–12 marks • fulfil limited requirements of the question • contain limited understanding of the content required • may contain poor balanced of content • may not contain evaluations • make limited use of relevant vocabulary Section B descriptor levels: Level five, 1–5 marks • fulfil a few requirements of the question • contain a very limited understanding of the content required • are likely to be unbalanced and undeveloped • evaluative statements are likely to be missing • make no use of relevant vocabulary

This question in 8291/22 May/June 2017

5 Fig. 5.1 is a model showing the relationship between death rate, birth rate, population size and increasing level of economic development. population size birth rate increasing increasing births and population deaths death rate increasing level of economic development Fig. 5.1 (a) Suggest how the model indicates changing socio-economic conditions. [10] (b) With reference to examples, assess the extent to which LEDCs and MEDCs balance resources with population growth. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

Mark scheme: 5(a) Initially birth rate and death rate are both high and the birth rate is approximately equal to death rate. The population grows slowly and remains low due to high infant mortality and low life expectancy. With increasing economic development and an improvement in medicine and health facilities, the death rate falls and birth rate remains high. With lower infant mortality and increased life expectancy, the population increases exponentially and birth rate is greater than death rate. With continuing economic development, with improvements in education, employment, career opportunities and availability of family planning, the birth rate starts to fall. The death rate remains stable and low and the population size begins to stabilise. Birth rate and death rate are approximately equal. With more economic development a declining population occurs when the birth rate continues to fall, the death rate remains low. Please use level descriptors 1 10 Question Answer Marks 5(b) The question requirements are: • to use examples from both MEDCs and LEDCs • to consider the balance between population and resources • to assess the extent to which there is balance between resources and population growth in countries at different levels of economic development. Indicative content: Countries where resources are balanced with population size have optimum populations. In these countries a balance between resources and population is maintained by preventing or restricting growth of the population through population control measures, for example, migration. Or through the sustainable use of resources such as better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, agro-ecological farming and reducing material use per unit of output. Alternatively, by an increase in the provision of resources through improved technology, including more productive farming methods, for example, genetic engineering to produce higher yielding crops or drought-resistant crops. Countries where resources are not balanced with population size may be overpopulated or underpopulated. Overpopulated countries where there is an increase in the demand for food, energy and raw materials are unsustainable. An increased population would increase the pressure to farm more intensively and cultivate poorer land leading to poorer yields. Overcultivation of arable land will result in soil erosion, degrading soil fertility and crop failures reducing food supply may result. Other countries are underpopulated where there is underutilisation of resources for the population. Please use level descriptors 2 30 Section B descriptor levels: Descriptor Award Mark Consistently meets the level criteria Mark at top of level Meets the criteria, but with some inconsistency Middle, mark to just below top mark Meets most of level criteria, but not all convincingly Just below middle, mark to just above bottom mark On the borderline of this level and the one below Mark at bottom of level level descriptors 1 Level one, 8–10 marks The response: • contains few errors • shows a very good understanding of the question • shows a good use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • provides a balanced answer Level two, 5–7 marks The response: • may contain some errors • shows an adequate understanding of the question • shows some use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • may lack balance Level three, 1–4 marks The response: • may contain errors • shows limited understanding of the question • shows little or no use of data or the information, where appropriate • lacks balance Section B descriptor levels: level descriptors 2 Responses: Level one, 25–30 marks • fulfil all the requirements of the question • contain a very good understanding of the content required • contain a very good balance of content • contain substantial critical and supportive evaluations • make accurate use of relevant vocabulary Level two, 19–24 marks • fulfil most of the requirements of the question • contain a good understanding of the content required • contain a good balance of content • contain some critical and supportive evaluations • make good use of relevant vocabulary Level three, 13–18 marks • fulfil some requirements of the question • contain some understanding of the content required • may contain some limited balance of content • may contain brief evaluations • make some use of relevant vocabulary Level four, 6–12 marks • fulfil limited requirements of the question • contain limited understanding of the content required • may contain poor balanced of content • may not contain evaluations • make limited use of relevant vocabulary Section B descriptor levels: Level five, 1–5 marks • fulfil a few requirements of the question • contain a very limited understanding of the content required • are likely to be unbalanced and undeveloped • evaluative statements are likely to be missing • make no use of relevant vocabulary

This question in 8291/23 May/June 2017

5 Fig. 5.1 shows the total global population and its percentage annual growth rate, from 1900 to 2015. 9 2.25 8 2.00 total global percentage population 7 1.75 annual / billion percentagepercentage annualannual growth rate 6 growthgrowth raterate 1.50 5 1.25 4 1.00 3 globalglobal populationpopulation 0.75 2 0.50 1 0.25 0 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Fig. 5.1 (a) Briefly describe the changes in the percentage annual growth rate of the global population from 1900 to 2015. Suggest reasons for these changes. [10] (b) Using examples from countries at contrasting levels of economic development, describe the impact of population change on resources. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

Mark scheme: 5(a) Changes in the percentage annual growth rate of the global population should be described with reference to an overall increase between 1920 and 1970 and an overall decrease between 1970 and 2015. Variation in the overall rates of increase and decrease during these periods should be considered. Increasing percentage annual growth rate can be attributed to reasons such as increased birth rates, a reduction in the rate of infant mortality, medical improvements and incentives to have larger families. Slower periods of growth rate at can be attributed to significant periods of war, disease or famine. Reasons for a decreasing percentage annual global growth rate can include reference to family planning, the increased use of contraceptives, and population policies. Continuing decreasing growth rate can be linked to economic and social development. Please use level descriptors 1 10 Question Answer Marks 5(b) The question requirements are: • to use contrasting examples • to describe the impact of population change on resources Indicative content: An answer may consider issues arising from an increasing global population, with overpopulation negatively impacting on global resources. Demand for food is expected to continue to grow due to the rising global population. Increased crop and meat production and increasingly more biofuels will be required. This will increase pressure on land resources. Expansion of farmland into areas less suitable for agriculture will require greater use of irrigation and fertilisers. More irrigation will impact on the quantity of water; the use of fertilisers will result in more water pollution. More and more of the natural environment will be used and destroyed e.g. deforestation of the tropical rainforest for agriculture will result in soil degradation. A growing population will also require land for housing and industry as well as agriculture. Alternatively a decreasing percentage annual growth rate of the global population may eventually lead to equilibrium and optimum population size. A fairer distribution of resources, the sustainable use of resources and protection of resources with less impact upon global resources. Please use level descriptors 2 30 Question Answer Marks Section B descriptor levels: Descriptor Award Mark Consistently meets the level criteria Mark at top of level Meets the criteria, but with some inconsistency Middle, mark to just below top mark Meets most of level criteria, but not all convincingly Just below middle, mark to just above bottom mark On the borderline of this level and the one below Mark at bottom of level Section B (part a), Level descriptors 1 8–10 marks The response: • contains few errors • shows a very good understanding of the question • shows a good use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • provides a balanced answer 5–7 marks The response: • may contain some errors • shows an adequate understanding of the question • shows some use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • may lack balance Question Answer Marks 1–4 marks The response: • may contains errors • shows limited understanding of the question • shows little or no use of data or the information, where appropriate • lacks balance Section B (part b): Level descriptors 2 Responses: Level one, 25–30 marks • fulfil all the requirements of the question • contain a very good understanding of the content required • contain a very good balance of content • contain substantial critical and supportive evaluations • make accurate use of relevant vocabulary Level two, 19–24 marks • fulfil most of the requirements of the question • contain a good understanding of the content required • contain a good balance of content • contain some critical and supportive evaluations • make good use of relevant vocabulary Level three, 13–18 marks • fulfil some requirements of the question • contain some understanding of the content required • may contain some limited balance of content • may contain brief evaluations • make some use of relevant vocabulary Question Answer Marks Level four, 6–12 marks • fulfil limited requirements of the question • contain limited understanding of the content required • may contain poor balance of content • may not contain evaluations • make limited use of relevant vocabulary Level five, 1–5 marks • fulfil a few of the requirements of the question • contain a very limited understanding of the content required • are likely to be unbalanced and undeveloped • evaluative statements are likely to be missing • make no use of relevant vocabulary

This question in 8291/21 May/June 2018

4 Fig. 4.1 shows the total global population between 1800 and 2015. 8 7 6 total global 5 population / billion 4 3 2 1 0 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year Fig. 4.1 (a) In the year 1800, the total global population was about one billion. Use Fig. 4.1 to describe and explain the trends in the time taken to increase the global population by each additional one billion. [10] (b) Describe the effectiveness of policies used to manage human population size in achieving an optimum population. Refer to examples in your answer. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

Mark scheme: 4(a) At first, the time interval taken to increase the global population by 1 billion is much longer (e.g. 123 years between 1804 and 1927), There is low growth rate in the global population. Subsequently there is an increasingly shorter time interval between each billion of population added (e.g. 32 years between 1927 and 1959). Population growth rate is increasing as birth rate increases. Population continues to increase at an increasing rate of growth. With higher birth rates and exponential growth of the population between 1959–1999, the time intervals for each billion added to the global population decreases from 15 to 13 to12 years. However, the time interval of 12 years between 1999 and 2011, to add another billion to the population, remains the same and population growth rate is beginning to slow as economic development and population control begin to impact upon birth rate. Please use level descriptors 1 10 4(b) The question requirements are: • to define an optimum population • to use examples • to refer to population policies • to describe the effectiveness of policies in population management Indicative content: An optimum population should be considered in relation to the carrying capacity of the environment and a balance between resource levels and population size. Policies aimed at controlling population size include, for example, control of fertility, family planning incentives, migration, education and employment opportunities. Policies and their effectiveness will be dependent on the examples chosen. Please use level descriptors 2 30

This question in 8291/22 May/June 2018

4 Fig. 4.1 shows the total global population between 1800 and 2015. 8 7 6 total global 5 population / billion 4 3 2 1 0 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year Fig. 4.1 (a) In the year 1800, the total global population was about one billion. Use Fig. 4.1 to describe and explain the trends in the time taken to increase the global population by each additional one billion. [10] (b) Describe the effectiveness of policies used to manage human population size in achieving an optimum population. Refer to examples in your answer. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

Mark scheme: 4(a) At first, the time interval taken to increase the global population by 1 billion is much longer (e.g. 123 years between 1804 and 1927), There is low growth rate in the global population. Subsequently there is an increasingly shorter time interval between each billion of population added (e.g. 32 years between 1927 and 1959). Population growth rate is increasing as birth rate increases. Population continues to increase at an increasing rate of growth. With higher birth rates and exponential growth of the population between 1959–1999, the time intervals for each billion added to the global population decreases from 15 to 13 to12 years. However, the time interval of 12 years between 1999 and 2011, to add another billion to the population, remains the same and population growth rate is beginning to slow as economic development and population control begin to impact upon birth rate. Please use level descriptors 1 10 4(b) The question requirements are: • to define an optimum population • to use examples • to refer to population policies • to describe the effectiveness of policies in population management Indicative content: An optimum population should be considered in relation to the carrying capacity of the environment and a balance between resource levels and population size. Policies aimed at controlling population size include, for example, control of fertility, family planning incentives, migration, education and employment opportunities. Policies and their effectiveness will be dependent on the examples chosen. Please use level descriptors 2 30

This question in 8291/23 May/June 2018

3 Fig. 3.1 is a graph showing the different stages in human population growth (a demographic transition model). Stage 1 2 3 4 5 birth rate high birth death rateand death rates (per 1000 people per year) total population low Fig. 3.1 (a) Describe the different stages in the human population graph (demographic transition model) shown in Fig. 3.1. [10] (b) Evaluate the different strategies used to control the size of the human population in countries with contrasting levels of economic development. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

This question in 8291/22 May/June 2020

3 Fig. 3.1 is a graph showing the different stages in human population growth (a demographic transition model). Stage 1 2 3 4 5 birth rate high birth death rateand death rates (per 1000 people per year) total population low Fig. 3.1 (a) Describe the different stages in the human population graph (demographic transition model) shown in Fig. 3.1. [10] (b) Evaluate the different strategies used to control the size of the human population in countries with contrasting levels of economic development. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

This question in 8291/23 May/June 2020

2 (a) Fig. 2.1 is a theoretical graph of population growth. carrying capacity of environment population time Fig. 2.1 (i) Define carrying capacity. … … … … [2] (ii) Describe the changes in population over time shown in Fig. 2.1. … … … … [2] (b) Fig. 2.2 shows the global population and annual population growth rate from 1900 to 2050 (predicted). 10.0 2.5 9.0 8.0 2.0 7.0 predicted global 6.0 1.5 annual population 5.0 population (billions) growth 4.0 1.0 rate (%) 3.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year Key global population annual population growth rate (%) Fig. 2.2 (i) Describe the predicted trends in global population and annual population growth rate from 2021 to 2050 shown in Fig. 2.2. … … … … [2] (ii) Suggest two factors which are likely to lead to the predicted trends shown in Fig. 2.2. … … … … [2] (iii) Malthus predicted a limit to human population growth. Suggest reasons why this has not happened. … … … … … … … … [4] (c) Fig. 2.3 shows population pyramids for two countries, A and B, with contrasting levels of economic development. males females age males females H85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 percentage of population percentage of population country A country B Fig. 2.3 (i) Explain the differences in the shape of the two population pyramids shown in Fig. 2.3. … … … … … … … … [4] (ii) Explain why country B is likely to experience a rapid increase in population in the future. … … … … … … … … [4] [Total: 20]

20 marks

Mark scheme: 2(a)(i) The number of people (animals or crops) a region can support; without degradation; 2 2(a)(ii) starts off with a gradual increase; has a rapid growth rate / exponential; levels off / plateaus; max 2 2 2(b)(i) population continues to grow / rises / increases; annual growth rate is falling / decreases; 2 Question Answer Marks 2(b)(ii) falling fertility rate / birth rate / birth control campaign; increasing life expectancy / falling death rate / improved health service; 2 2(b)(iii) Malthus predicted a population catastrophe due to famine / war / disease; this hasn’t happened due to improved agricultural practices; leading to better nutrition / greater availability of food; improved medical facilities / availability; leading to better health / life expectancy; wars tend to be limited in size due to technology; less deaths relatively; more control over fertility; max 4 4 2(c)(i) Country A More like a column shape; age groups are more even; population is ageing; people live longer; females live longer than males; Country B more like a pyramid shape; much greater population at younger age group; people don’t live as long; no gender difference in longevity; max 4 4 2(c)(ii) more young people / children in the population; will reach reproductive age / mature; at the same time; produce children; leading to population boom; max 4 4

This question in 8291/22 Oct/Nov 2020

5 Fig. 5.1 is a graph showing human population from 1800 with a prediction to 2100. 10 9 8 7 6 population 5 / billions 4 3 2 1 0 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year Key predicted population Fig. 5.1 (a) Describe and explain the trend shown in Fig. 5.1. [10] (b) Assess the difficulty of providing resources for the human population. Use examples from countries with contrasting levels of income. [30] [Total: 40] The boundaries and names shown, the designations used and the presentation of material on any maps contained in this question paper/insert do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by Cambridge Assessment International Education concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area or any of its authorities, or of the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

40 marks

Mark scheme: 5(a) According to the graph, from 1800 to 1920, the global population was less than 2 billion with a slight increase. But after 1940, this population boomed and reached to 7 billion in the year 2017. The graph shows that this rapid growth / exponential shape of population would continue till 2050 when the population would reach to 9 billion. After that, the global population will plateau / level off and could fall / decline to around 8.5 billion in the year 2100. The rapid growth in population is a result of better diets, hygiene and health care leading to a reduced death rate and increased birth rate. Pressure of increasing population on the use of resources e.g. water, land, food, fuel etc. 5(b) The question requirements are: • demonstrate an understanding of the population growth and its impact on resources • understand the problems of countries with lower economic development • be able to describe the approaches to provision and preservation of resources • make comparison between different levels of economic development. Indicative content: Cost, lack of resources and even political will to solve the issues. Lower income countries often rely on NGO for support and input. Infrastructure to protect resources are all expensive. Lack of infrastructure makes difficulties in transporting items needed. Sometimes produce is exported and not available to local population. Increasing severe weather events also affect resources. Growing populations put stress on demand and supply of resources, whereas stable populations are more able to manage the resources. Example of resources include water, land, food, medicines etc. In higher income countries the infrastructure is present and the population is usually stable or marginally rising which allows for efficient planning. Political will is directed to planning provision of resources for the population. Balance between the two types of economy. 30 please use level descriptors 2 please use level descriptors 1 Question Answer Marks Section B descriptor levels: Descriptor Award Mark Consistently meets the level criteria Mark at top of level Meets the criteria, but with some inconsistency Middle, mark to just below top mark Meets most of level criteria, but not all convincingly Just below middle, mark to just above bottom mark On the borderline of this level and the one below Mark at bottom of level Section B (part a), 8–10 marks The response: • contains few errors • shows a very good understanding of the question • shows a good use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • provides a balanced answer 5–7 marks The response: • may contain some errors • shows an adequate understanding of the question • shows some use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • may lack balance 1–4 marks The response: • may contains errors • shows limited understanding of the question • shows little or no use of data or the information, where appropriate • lacks balance Level descriptors 1 Question Answer Marks Section B (part b), Responses: Level one, 25–30 marks • fulfil all the requirements of the question • contain a very good understanding of the content required • contain a very good balance of content • contain substantial critical and supportive evaluations • make accurate use of relevant vocabulary Level two, 19–24 marks • fulfil most of the requirements of the question • contain a good understanding of the content required • contain a good balance of content • contain some critical and supportive evaluations • make good use of relevant vocabulary Level three, 13–18 marks • fulfil some requirements of the question • contain some understanding of the content required • may contain some limited balance of content • may contain brief evaluations • make some use of relevant vocabulary Level four, 6–12 marks • fulfil limited requirements of the question • contain limited understanding of the content required • may contain poorly balanced of content • may not contain evaluations • make limited use of relevant vocabulary Level descriptors 2 Question Answer Marks Level five, 1–5 marks • fulfil a few of the requirements of the question • contain a very limited understanding of the content required • are likely to be unbalanced and undeveloped • evaluative statements are likely to be missing • make no use of relevant vocabulary

This question in 8291/21 Oct/Nov 2021

5 Fig. 5.1 shows predicted percentage change in human population by continent from 2019 to 2100. Europe North America –9% Asia +51% +9% Africa +242% South America +16% Oceania +77% Fig. 5.1 (a) Describe and explain the predicted percentage change in human population by continent shown in Fig. 5.1. [10] (b) An increase in the human population will require agricultural improvements to increase global food production. Assess the agricultural improvements required to increase food production in countries with contrasting levels of economic development. [30] [Total: 40]

40 marks

Mark scheme: 5(a) All areas except Europe (-9%) have projected increases. Falling birth and death rates plus lifestyle choices contribute to this. Whereas other areas have small, predicted increases Africa (+242%) has a huge predicted rise. Oceania (+77%) and North America (+51%) were the next highest. Whilst having emerging economies there are still high birth and death rates in Africa where some areas lack the facilities to treat illness, lack access to health care and contraception and are also affected by political and religious issues. Candidates will refer to the one child policy in China though this has been abandoned. The projected population growth map suggests the problems to come as the huge growth in Africa is not compensated by losses anywhere other than in Europe. This means that continued stress on resources is to be expected. There needs to be a more sustainable approach to resources to avoid worldwide problems and potential conflicts 5(b) The question requirements are: • demonstrate an understanding of the population growth and its impact on resources • understand the problems of improving agricultural practices in order to provide food for a growing population in a sustainable way • be able to describe and assess the methods used and the problems faced by countries with different levels of economic development. Indicative content: An understanding that an increasing population needs more food. Agricultural methods to improve this are based on intensive use of fertilisers, increased mechanisation and repeat cropping of land without a fallow period. Land is sometimes cropped twice a year. Livestock farming brings huge issues especially the intensive farms which result in global issues of pollution. Modern intensive agriculture has a huge logistic infrastructure to get produce to consumers. In low income economies there is likely to be subsistence level farming relying on clearing new land and lacking the resources to buy fertiliser and good quality seed. Aid to purchase these and developments such as genetically modified and cloned plants providing a better, more guaranteed product can be utilised. 30 please use level descriptors 1 please use level descriptors 2 Question Answer Marks Section B descriptor levels: Descriptor Award Mark Consistently meets the level criteria Mark at top of level Meets the criteria, but with some inconsistency Middle, mark to just below top mark Meets most of level criteria, but not all convincingly Just below middle, mark to just above bottom mark On the borderline of this level and the one below Mark at bottom of level Section B (part a), 8–10 marks The response: • contains few errors • shows a very good understanding of the question • shows a good use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • provides a balanced answer 5–7 marks The response: • may contain some errors • shows an adequate understanding of the question • shows some use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • may lack balance 1–4 marks The response: • may contains errors • shows limited understanding of the question • shows little or no use of data or the information, where appropriate • lacks balance Level descriptors 1 Question Answer Marks Section B (part b), Responses: Level one, 25–30 marks • fulfil all the requirements of the question • contain a very good understanding of the content required • contain a very good balance of content • contain substantial critical and supportive evaluations • make accurate use of relevant vocabulary Level two, 19–24 marks • fulfil most of the requirements of the question • contain a good understanding of the content required • contain a good balance of content • contain some critical and supportive evaluations • make good use of relevant vocabulary Level three, 13–18 marks • fulfil some requirements of the question • contain some understanding of the content required • may contain some limited balance of content • may contain brief evaluations • make some use of relevant vocabulary Level four, 6–12 marks • fulfil limited requirements of the question • contain limited understanding of the content required • may contain poorly balanced of content • may not contain evaluations • make limited use of relevant vocabulary Level descriptors 2 Question Answer Marks Level five, 1–5 marks • fulfil a few of the requirements of the question • contain a very limited understanding of the content required • are likely to be unbalanced and undeveloped • evaluative statements are likely to be missing • make no use of relevant vocabulary

This question in 8291/22 Oct/Nov 2021

5 Fig. 5.1 is a graph showing human population from 1800 with a prediction to 2100. 10 9 8 7 6 population 5 / billions 4 3 2 1 0 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year Key predicted population Fig. 5.1 (a) Describe and explain the trend shown in Fig. 5.1. [10] (b) Assess the difficulty of providing resources for the human population. Use examples from countries with contrasting levels of income. [30] [Total: 40] The boundaries and names shown, the designations used and the presentation of material on any maps contained in this question paper/insert do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by Cambridge Assessment International Education concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area or any of its authorities, or of the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

40 marks

Mark scheme: 5(a) According to the graph, from 1800 to 1920, the global population was less than 2 billion with a slight increase. But after 1940, this population boomed and reached to 7 billion in the year 2017. The graph shows that this rapid growth / exponential shape of population would continue till 2050 when the population would reach to 9 billion. After that, the global population will plateau / level off and could fall / decline to around 8.5 billion in the year 2100. The rapid growth in population is a result of better diets, hygiene and health care leading to a reduced death rate and increased birth rate. Pressure of increasing population on the use of resources e.g. water, land, food, fuel etc. 5(b) The question requirements are: • demonstrate an understanding of the population growth and its impact on resources • understand the problems of countries with lower economic development • be able to describe the approaches to provision and preservation of resources • make comparison between different levels of economic development. Indicative content: Cost, lack of resources and even political will to solve the issues. Lower income countries often rely on NGO for support and input. Infrastructure to protect resources are all expensive. Lack of infrastructure makes difficulties in transporting items needed. Sometimes produce is exported and not available to local population. Increasing severe weather events also affect resources. Growing populations put stress on demand and supply of resources, whereas stable populations are more able to manage the resources. Example of resources include water, land, food, medicines etc. In higher income countries the infrastructure is present and the population is usually stable or marginally rising which allows for efficient planning. Political will is directed to planning provision of resources for the population. Balance between the two types of economy. 30 please use level descriptors 2 please use level descriptors 1 Question Answer Marks Section B descriptor levels: Descriptor Award Mark Consistently meets the level criteria Mark at top of level Meets the criteria, but with some inconsistency Middle, mark to just below top mark Meets most of level criteria, but not all convincingly Just below middle, mark to just above bottom mark On the borderline of this level and the one below Mark at bottom of level Section B (part a), 8–10 marks The response: • contains few errors • shows a very good understanding of the question • shows a good use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • provides a balanced answer 5–7 marks The response: • may contain some errors • shows an adequate understanding of the question • shows some use of data or the information provided, where appropriate • may lack balance 1–4 marks The response: • may contains errors • shows limited understanding of the question • shows little or no use of data or the information, where appropriate • lacks balance Level descriptors 1 Question Answer Marks Section B (part b), Responses: Level one, 25–30 marks • fulfil all the requirements of the question • contain a very good understanding of the content required • contain a very good balance of content • contain substantial critical and supportive evaluations • make accurate use of relevant vocabulary Level two, 19–24 marks • fulfil most of the requirements of the question • contain a good understanding of the content required • contain a good balance of content • contain some critical and supportive evaluations • make good use of relevant vocabulary Level three, 13–18 marks • fulfil some requirements of the question • contain some understanding of the content required • may contain some limited balance of content • may contain brief evaluations • make some use of relevant vocabulary Level four, 6–12 marks • fulfil limited requirements of the question • contain limited understanding of the content required • may contain poorly balanced of content • may not contain evaluations • make limited use of relevant vocabulary Level descriptors 2 Question Answer Marks Level five, 1–5 marks • fulfil a few of the requirements of the question • contain a very limited understanding of the content required • are likely to be unbalanced and undeveloped • evaluative statements are likely to be missing • make no use of relevant vocabulary

This question in 8291/23 Oct/Nov 2021

1 Fig. 1.1 is a map of Singapore, Southeast Asia. Singapore is comprised of 63 islands, with a total surface area of land of 721.5 km2. N Malaysia Singapore Strait Singapore Indonesia 0 10 km Key capital airport international boundary Fig. 1.1 In 2020, the population of Singapore was 5 850 000. (a) Singapore has a high population density. (i) Calculate the population density for Singapore in 2020. … people km–2 [1] (ii) Explain the challenges that a high population density can cause a country. … … … … … … [3] (b) Fig. 1.2 shows the population pyramid for Singapore in 2020. male age range female 100 + 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 population / million Fig. 1.2 (i) Compare the population structure of males and females in Singapore. … … … … … … … … [4] (ii) Suggest how this population pyramid indicates that Singapore has an economy of a high income country (HIC). … … … … [2] (c) Suggest why Singapore is at high risk from the effects of climate change. Give reasons for your answer. … … … … [2] (d) Solar radiation management (SRM) is a theoretical strategy to reduce the impact of climate change. (i) One SRM strategy is to spray sulfate aerosol particles into the stratosphere. Explain how this could reduce the impact of climate change. … … … … [2] (ii) Suggest why some scientists think investing in technology to reduce the combustion of fossil fuels is more important than investing in SRM technology. … … … … [2] [Total: 16]

16 marks

Mark scheme: Question Answer Marks 1(a)(i) 8108(.108108); 1 1(a)(ii) any three from: 3 limited land area to accommodate people / not enough houses; overcrowding; leads to spread of disease / named disease (more quickly); limited land area for infrastructure / roads; leads to increased house prices / land prices / negative economic impact on population; not enough jobs available; high level of car use / factory emissions; leads to congestion; leads to air pollution / acid rain / global warming / smog; effect of stated air pollution, e.g. acidification of lakes / climate change; limited green spaces / limited agricultural land / high level of urbanisation; leads to food shortages; leads to water shortages / water pollution; waste management; AVP; 1(b)(i) any four from: 4 (approximately) equal numbers / same trend; more females in older age / more females aged 70+ / woman live longer; more females in, working age / 15–39 age; no males in 100+ age range; 1(b)(ii) any two from: 2 high life expectancy / people live a long time / taller (than LIC); high(er) number of older dependents (than LIC); low(er) number of young dependents (than LIC); high(er) number of economically active (than LIC); indicates low birth / death rate; 1(c) any two from: 2 island / surrounded by sea; at risk from flooding; change in ocean / wind circulation; increased ocean temperatures lead to extreme weather events; high population density / limited land area: food / energy / water insecurity; 1(d)(i) (small amounts of) inbound sunlight are reflected back (into space); 2 cools planet / reduces global temperatures / reduces speed of climate change; 1(d)(ii) any two from: 2 combustion of fossil fuels produces, greenhouse gases / carbon dioxide; idea that SRM: does not reduce greenhouse gases / only deals with symptom not the problem / may only work for a short period / not a long-term solution; SRM: untested theory / might have negative effect, e.g. effect on ozone layer / health impact;

This question in 8291/21 Oct/Nov 2022

1 Fig. 1.1 is a map of Mongolia. Mongolia has a total land area of 1 560 000 km2. N RUSSIA CHINA Ulaanbaatar MONGOLIA CHINA Desert Gobi 0 200 km Key capital international boundary Fig. 1.1 In 2020, the population of Mongolia was 3 170 000. (a) Mongolia has a low population density. (i) Calculate the population density for Mongolia in 2020. … people km–2 [1] (ii) Explain the challenges faced by countries with a low population density. … … … … … … … … [4] (b) Fig. 1.2 shows the age dependency ratio in Mongolia from 1960 to 2018. 110 100 90 80 age dependency ratio 70 60 50 40 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 year Fig. 1.2 The higher the ratio, the larger the dependent population compared to the working-age population. A ratio of 100 indicates that the number of dependents is exactly the same as the number of working-age people. Describe the trend shown by the data in Fig. 1.2. … … … … … … [3] (c) Fig. 1.3 shows the population pyramid for Mongolia in 2020. age male range female 100+ 95–99 90–94 85–89 80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 population / million Fig. 1.3 Suggest how the shape of the population pyramid for Mongolia in 1975 was different from the 2020 shape. Give reasons for your answer. … … … … [2] (d) The Gobi Desert in Mongolia is a cold desert. Describe the climate of a cold desert biome in winter and in summer. winter … … summer … … [3] (e) The photograph in Fig. 1.4 shows an area of desert during primary succession. Fig. 1.4 (i) Suggest how the pioneer species in Fig. 1.4 colonised this area of desert. … … … … [2] (ii) Suggest the characteristics of the pioneer species in Fig. 1.4. … … … … [2] (iii) Explain how the death of pioneer species can lead to secondary succession. … … … … [2] (f) The total area of land in Mongolia is 1 560 000 km2. The area of this land covered by water in Mongolia is 10 560 km2. (i) Calculate the percentage of land area covered by water in Mongolia. percentage = … [1] (ii) Suggest why climate change can increase water insecurity in Mongolia. … … … … [2] (iii) Explain the impacts of water insecurity. … … … … … … … … [4] (g) Solar radiation management (SRM) is a theoretical strategy to reduce the impact of climate change. (i) One SRM strategy is the use of space reflectors. Outline how space reflectors could reduce the impact of climate change. … … … … [2] (ii) Suggest why some people think investing in SRM technology is more important than reducing our combustion of fossil fuels. … … [1] [Total: 29]

29 marks

Mark scheme: Question Answer Marks 1(a)(i) 2 / 2.03; 1 1(a)(ii) any four from: 4 difficult to find a partner / low marriage rates; leads to low birth rate; leads to population decline; fewer jobs in rural areas; leads to abandonment of, rural areas / agricultural land; leads to urbanisation; less economically active people / fall in GDP; less people to purchase products / services, reduces economy of country; lack of available healthcare / supply of goods / accessing amenities due to large distances between people; people have to travel large distances / transportation more costly / not enough transport available; less technological advancement / create ideas to boost economy; reduction in tourism; AVP; 1(b) any three from: 3 1960–1973: increasing age dependency ratio / decreasing number of working age people / increasing number of dependents; 1973–1975: age dependency ratio plateaus / just above 100 / number of dependents exactly the same / slightly higher than number of working-age people; 1975–2010: decreasing age dependency ratio / increasing number of working age people / decreasing number of dependents; 2010–2018: increasing age dependency ratio / decreasing number of working age people / increasing number of dependents; 1(c) any two from (for 1975): 2 narrower at old age / top; lower life expectancy; improved medical care in 2020; wider for young dependents / base; birth rate higher; 1(d) any three from: 3 winter long; cold / snowfall; temperature between –2 to –14 °C; lower rainfall; summer short; hot; low rainfall (higher than the winter); (moderately) warm summer; temperature between 21 to 26 °C; 1(e)(i) seeds / spores; 2 carried by wind / insects / animals / birds / humans; 1(e)(ii) any two from: 2 fungi / lichen; high stress tolerance / hardy / withstands harsh environment; grow quickly; tough outer layer; adapted to conserve water, e.g. waxy outer layer / spiny leaves; short / shallow roots; 1(e)(iii) any two from: 2 adds organic matter / humus; adds nutrients through decomposition; reduces competition / free up space; increases water holding capacity; 1(f)(i) 0.677 / 0.68 / 0.7; 1 1(f)(ii) any two from: 2 landlocked; few existing water sources; increased temperatures / global warming; leads to drought; climate change alters rainfall patterns; 1(f)(iii) any four from: 4 reduced crop yield / crop failure; livestock death; leads to food shortages / malnutrition / famine; leads to poverty / increase in cost of food; farmers lose income from their crops; reduced water for industrial processes / loss of manufactured goods; disrupts education (particularly girls) as take time out to collect water; dehydration from lack of water to drink; limited access to clean drinking water / forced to drink contaminated water; leads to water related illnesses / cholera / typhoid / diarrhoea; migration / refugees; 1(g)(i) mirrors in space / stratosphere; 2 reflect or reduce the amount of incoming solar radiation (reaching Earth); which reduces temperature of Earth’s surface / reduces greenhouse effect / reduces global warming; 1(g)(ii) any one from: 1 we can continue to use fossil fuels / no changes needed to our way of life; hard to reduce combustion of fossil fuels;

This question in 8291/22 Oct/Nov 2022

1 Fig. 1.1 is a map of Singapore, Southeast Asia. Singapore is comprised of 63 islands, with a total surface area of land of 721.5 km2. N Malaysia Singapore Strait Singapore Indonesia 0 10 km Key capital airport international boundary Fig. 1.1 In 2020, the population of Singapore was 5 850 000. (a) Singapore has a high population density. (i) Calculate the population density for Singapore in 2020. … people km–2 [1] (ii) Explain the challenges that a high population density can cause a country. … … … … … … [3] (b) Fig. 1.2 shows the population pyramid for Singapore in 2020. male age range female 100 + 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 population / million Fig. 1.2 (i) Compare the population structure of males and females in Singapore. … … … … … … … … [4] (ii) Suggest how this population pyramid indicates that Singapore has an economy of a high income country (HIC). … … … … [2] (c) Suggest why Singapore is at high risk from the effects of climate change. Give reasons for your answer. … … … … [2] (d) Solar radiation management (SRM) is a theoretical strategy to reduce the impact of climate change. (i) One SRM strategy is to spray sulfate aerosol particles into the stratosphere. Explain how this could reduce the impact of climate change. … … … … [2] (ii) Suggest why some scientists think investing in technology to reduce the combustion of fossil fuels is more important than investing in SRM technology. … … … … [2] [Total: 16]

16 marks

Mark scheme: Question Answer Marks 1(a)(i) 8108(.108108); 1 1(a)(ii) any three from: 3 limited land area to accommodate people / not enough houses; overcrowding; leads to spread of disease / named disease (more quickly); limited land area for infrastructure / roads; leads to increased house prices / land prices / negative economic impact on population; not enough jobs available; high level of car use / factory emissions; leads to congestion; leads to air pollution / acid rain / global warming / smog; effect of stated air pollution, e.g. acidification of lakes / climate change; limited green spaces / limited agricultural land / high level of urbanisation; leads to food shortages; leads to water shortages / water pollution; waste management; AVP; 1(b)(i) any four from: 4 (approximately) equal numbers / same trend; more females in older age / more females aged 70+ / woman live longer; more females in, working age / 15–39 age; no males in 100+ age range; 1(b)(ii) any two from: 2 high life expectancy / people live a long time / taller (than LIC); high(er) number of older dependents (than LIC); low(er) number of young dependents (than LIC); high(er) number of economically active (than LIC); indicates low birth / death rate; 1(c) any two from: 2 island / surrounded by sea; at risk from flooding; change in ocean / wind circulation; increased ocean temperatures lead to extreme weather events; high population density / limited land area: food / energy / water insecurity; 1(d)(i) (small amounts of) inbound sunlight are reflected back (into space); 2 cools planet / reduces global temperatures / reduces speed of climate change; 1(d)(ii) any two from: 2 combustion of fossil fuels produces, greenhouse gases / carbon dioxide; idea that SRM: does not reduce greenhouse gases / only deals with symptom not the problem / may only work for a short period / not a long-term solution; SRM: untested theory / might have negative effect, e.g. effect on ozone layer / health impact;

This question in 8291/23 Oct/Nov 2022

1 (a) The World Bank classifies countries into income groups. Fig. 1.1 shows the number of low-income economy countries (LICs), middle-income economy countries (MICs) and high-income economy countries (HICs) between 1987–2015. Key LICs HICs MICs 120 100 80 number of 60 countries 40 20 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 year Fig. 1.1 Compare the trends shown by the data in Fig. 1.1 for LICs and HICs. … … … … … … [3] (b) The United Nations classifies countries using the Human Development Index, HDI. The HDI measures life expectancy, level of education and the income of a country. A country is given an HDI score between 0 and 1. The closer a country gets to HDI 1, the more developed the country has become. Table 1.1 shows information for three countries in 2020. Table 1.1 country China Chad Japan World Bank classification MIC LIC HIC HDI score 0.761 0.328 0.919 income of country ÷ population 10 410 700 45 180 / US$ mean number of births per woman 1.69 6.40 1.42 percentage literacy rate 96.8 22.3 99 expected years of schooling 14.0 7.3 15.2 life expectancy 77 54 81 (i) Use the data in Table 1.1 to suggest why Chad has an HDI score of 0.328. … … … … [2] (ii) Use the data in Table 1.1 to suggest why some people think the HDI score is better than the World Bank classification. … … [1] (c) From 1979 to 2015, China had a one-child policy per family. This policy aimed to limit the increasing population of the country. It is estimated that 400 million births were prevented by this policy. Suggest the impacts of the one-child policy on China’s use of natural resources. … … … … [2] (d) Table 1.2 shows the percentage of the population in different age groups in China. Table 1.2 age group 0 to 14 15 to 64 65+ percentage of 17.8 80.0 12.6 population Use the data in Table 1.2 to calculate the dependency ratio using the equation shown. dependency ratio = [young population (0 to 14) + old population (65+)] × 100 population aged 15 to 64 dependency ratio = … [1] (e) During the one-child policy, the mean number of births per woman in China decreased from 2.75 in 1979 to 1.62 in 2016. The working age population also decreased. The United Nations estimates that 37% of China’s population will be over 60 years of age by 2050. Suggest the impact the one-child policy will have on China’s economy by 2050. Give reasons for your answer. … … … … … … … … [4] [Total: 13]

13 marks

Mark scheme: Question Answer Marks 1(a) any three comparisons from: 3 overall HICs increased and LICs decreased; 2005 LICs and HICs equal / HICs overtake LICs at crossover point; after 2005, LICs decreasing and HICs increasing / before 2005, HICs always lower than LICs; before 2005, both fluctuate; quote comparative (quantitative or qualitative) data e.g. in 2015 there were 84 HICs compared to 28 LICs or in 1987 LICs were higher than HICs; 1(b)(i) any two from: 2 shows Chad is a developing country / less developed; low level of education / low number of years of schooling / low literacy; low income / Chad is a LIC; low life expectancy / life expectancy only 54; high birth rate; 1(b)(ii) any one from: 1 China: World Bank classification is MIC but HDI score is high; HDI shows how close the country is to a boundary whereas the World Bank classification does not allow this / HDI more specific (e.g. Japan and China only 0.158 difference but classes an HIC and MIC); World Bank classification only measures income / HDI measures more factors / how developed a country is; 1(c) any two from: 2 less use of (natural) resources / reduces depletion of resources; e.g. fossil fuels / food / land / water; so conserved for future generations / idea of sustainability / preserved better; improved food / water / energy security; 1(d) 38; 1 1(e) any three from: 4 reduced economic growth / economy decreases; lower numbers in the work place / high number of job vacancies; lower tax revenues; greater spending on pensions; greater spending on health care; less experience in the workplace; less innovation;

This question in 8291/21 Oct/Nov 2023

1 (a) The World Bank classifies countries into income groups. Fig. 1.1 shows the number of low-income economy countries (LICs), middle-income economy countries (MICs) and high-income economy countries (HICs) between 1987–2015. Key LICs HICs MICs 120 100 80 number of 60 countries 40 20 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 year Fig. 1.1 Compare the trends shown by the data in Fig. 1.1 for LICs and HICs. … … … … … … [3] (b) The United Nations classifies countries using the Human Development Index, HDI. The HDI measures life expectancy, level of education and the income of a country. A country is given an HDI score between 0 and 1. The closer a country gets to HDI 1, the more developed the country has become. Table 1.1 shows information for three countries in 2020. Table 1.1 country China Chad Japan World Bank classification MIC LIC HIC HDI score 0.761 0.328 0.919 income of country ÷ population 10 410 700 45 180 / US$ mean number of births per woman 1.69 6.40 1.42 percentage literacy rate 96.8 22.3 99 expected years of schooling 14.0 7.3 15.2 life expectancy 77 54 81 (i) Use the data in Table 1.1 to suggest why Chad has an HDI score of 0.328. … … … … [2] (ii) Use the data in Table 1.1 to suggest why some people think the HDI score is better than the World Bank classification. … … [1] (c) From 1979 to 2015, China had a one-child policy per family. This policy aimed to limit the increasing population of the country. It is estimated that 400 million births were prevented by this policy. Suggest the impacts of the one-child policy on China’s use of natural resources. … … … … [2] (d) Table 1.2 shows the percentage of the population in different age groups in China. Table 1.2 age group 0 to 14 15 to 64 65+ percentage of 17.8 80.0 12.6 population Use the data in Table 1.2 to calculate the dependency ratio using the equation shown. dependency ratio = [young population (0 to 14) + old population (65+)] × 100 population aged 15 to 64 dependency ratio = … [1] (e) During the one-child policy, the mean number of births per woman in China decreased from 2.75 in 1979 to 1.62 in 2016. The working age population also decreased. The United Nations estimates that 37% of China’s population will be over 60 years of age by 2050. Suggest the impact the one-child policy will have on China’s economy by 2050. Give reasons for your answer. … … … … … … … … [4] [Total: 13]

13 marks

Mark scheme: Question Answer Marks 1(a) any three comparisons from: 3 overall HICs increased and LICs decreased; 2005 LICs and HICs equal / HICs overtake LICs at crossover point; after 2005, LICs decreasing and HICs increasing / before 2005, HICs always lower than LICs; before 2005, both fluctuate; quote comparative (quantitative or qualitative) data e.g. in 2015 there were 84 HICs compared to 28 LICs or in 1987 LICs were higher than HICs; 1(b)(i) any two from: 2 shows Chad is a developing country / less developed; low level of education / low number of years of schooling / low literacy; low income / Chad is a LIC; low life expectancy / life expectancy only 54; high birth rate; 1(b)(ii) any one from: 1 China: World Bank classification is MIC but HDI score is high; HDI shows how close the country is to a boundary whereas the World Bank classification does not allow this / HDI more specific (e.g. Japan and China only 0.158 difference but classes an HIC and MIC); World Bank classification only measures income / HDI measures more factors / how developed a country is; 1(c) any two from: 2 less use of (natural) resources / reduces depletion of resources; e.g. fossil fuels / food / land / water; so conserved for future generations / idea of sustainability / preserved better; improved food / water / energy security; 1(d) 38; 1 1(e) any three from: 4 reduced economic growth / economy decreases; lower numbers in the work place / high number of job vacancies; lower tax revenues; greater spending on pensions; greater spending on health care; less experience in the workplace; less innovation;

This question in 8291/23 Oct/Nov 2023

4 A megacity is an urban centre with more than 10 million people. (a) The bar chart in Fig. 4.1 shows countries with large megacities in 2021. Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan Jakarta, Indonesia Delhi, India Manila, megacity Philippines São Paulo, Brazil Seoul, South Korea Shanghai, China New York, USA 20 000 30 000 40 000 population / 1000 Fig. 4.1 (i) Complete the bar chart in Fig. 4.1 to show a population of New York of 21 000 000. [2] (ii) Tokyo-Yokohama has an area of 2194 km2. Calculate the population density of Tokyo-Yokohama. Give your answer to the nearest whole number. population density = … people / km2 [3] (iii) The World Bank classifies countries by their economy. The classifications are: • high-income economies (HICs) • middle-income economies (MICs) • low-income economies (LICs) Each classification can be further split into lower and upper economies. Table 4.1 shows the classifications for the countries in Fig. 4.1. Table 4.1 World Bank country classification Japan HIC Indonesia HIC India lower MIC Philippines lower MIC Brazil upper MIC South Korea HIC China upper MIC USA HIC Calculate the percentage of the megacities in Fig. 4.1 that are from countries classified as HICs. percentage = … % [1] (iv) State two economic factors that influence population density. 1 … … 2 … … [2] (b) Table 4.2 shows the age structure for Japan. Table 4.2 age range population 0–14 15 670 950 15–24 11 889 729 25–54 46 184 525 55–64 15 134 799 65+ 36 627 469 The formula for calculating dependency ratio is shown. [young population (0 to 14) + old population (65+)] × 100 population aged 15 to 64 (i) Use Table 4.2 to calculate the dependency ratio for Japan. dependency ratio = … % [2] (ii) Dependency ratios show the ratio of the non-working age population to the working age population. Suggest the limitations of classifying the working age population as between 15 to 64. … … … … … … [3]

13 marks

Mark scheme: 4(a)(i) correct plot at 21 000 000; bar same width AND not touching other bars AND same distance between bars; 2 4(a)(ii) correct reading from bar chart / 39 200 000; reading  2194; 17 867; 3 Question Answer Marks 4(a)(iii) 50; 1 4(a)(iv) any two economic factors from: availability of jobs / idea of average income from jobs; availability or cost of: infrastructure / transport links / communication links; stated resource e.g. food / water / energy; housing; healthcare; education; taxes; 2 4(b)(i) (014)  (65) value on top of sum: 52 298 419 OR (aged 1564) value on bottom of sum: 73 209 053; 71(.4370926) 2 Question Answer Marks 4(b)(ii) any three from doesn’t take into account: students (over 15) / people who work before 15; people cannot work due to ill health / illness; people cannot work due disability; non-working parents / people on paternity or maternity leave; early retirement / stop working before 64; working beyond age 64; harder to get a job at lower or upper ends of range; 3 4(b)(iii) any three from: ageing population / more old people; lower tax revenue; higher pension or retirement spending needed; pressure on healthcare / increase healthcare / more carers (for elderly) / more nursing homes / more medical facilities (needed for elderly); pressure to raise retirement age; pressure on named resources e.g. energy / water / food; people may work longer / working age will increase; 3 Question Answer Marks 4(c) any three from: (availability or cost of) contraception; education about contraception; improved education for women / more opportunities for woman; availability or improved or cost of health care; 3

This question in 8291/21 May/June 2024

1 (a) Fig. 1.1 shows the total fertility rate for 2020. Total fertility rate is the number of children born per woman. Key number of children per woman no data 0 1 2 3 4+ Tropic of Cancer Equator Tropic of Capricorn Fig. 1.1 (i) Describe the distribution shown in Fig. 1.1. … … … … … … [3] (ii) Explain why a lower fertility rate reduces the impact of climate change. … … … … … … [3] (iii) State three factors that affect fertility rate. 1 … 2 … 3 … [3] (b) Table 1.1 shows the dependency ratio for Bangladesh in 2001 and 2021. Table 1.1 year dependency ratio 2001 75 2021 44 Suggest two reasons why the dependency ratio has decreased. 1 … … 2 … … [2] (c) A report estimated that adapting to the impacts of climate change will cost countries with low‑income economies $300 billion a year by 2030. The photograph in Fig. 1.2 shows a road across a shallow river. Fig. 1.2 Explain why the impacts of climate change will require the road to be adapted. … … … … [2] (d) The divided bar chart in Fig. 1.3 shows information about the number of carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities from 2010 to 2021. Key planned under construction operational 100 80 60 number of facilities 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 year Fig. 1.3 (i) Complete the bar on Fig. 1.3 for 2018 to show there were 15 planned CCS facilities. [2] (ii) State which years had the most operational CCS facilities. … [1] (iii) State the number of CCS facilities that were under construction in 2016. … [1] (iv) Suggest two reasons why the number of planned CCS facilities in 2010 was fewer than the number of planned CCS facilities in 2021. 1 … … 2 … … [2] (e) Describe how carbon capture and storage (CCS) reduces the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. … … … … … … [3] (f) Solar radiation management (SRM) is a strategy which aims to reduce the impact of climate change. State two examples of SRM. 1 … 2 … [2] [Total: 24]

24 marks

Mark scheme: 1(a)(i) any three from: highest fertility rate in Africa; west coast of Americas higher than east coast; higher numbers for LICs compared to HICs; relevant quoted data for a continent; e.g. all of Europe has 12 child per woman; relevant quoted data for a country; e.g. Niger has 67 children per woman; AVP; 1(a)(ii) any three from: (fewer people so) less stated (e.g. food) resources used / needed; less energy consumption / less fossil fuels combusted; less carbon dioxide produced / methane / greenhouse gas; reduction in (enhanced) greenhouse effect / global warming; 3 1(a)(iii) any three from: (availability or cost) of contraception; education about contraception; improved education / opportunities for women; availability or improved or cost of health care; (local, national, global) policies; cultural reasons; 3 1(b) any two from: more working age people / more 1564 people; migration of working age people into country; change in birth rate; reduction in life expectancy / death rate of older people increases; 2 1(c) any two from: water level rise; extreme weather / flooding; (surface) erosion; will need to build a bridge / find a different route across the river / divert river; 2 Question Answer Marks 1(d)(i) correct plotting; bar same width and not touching and shading to match key; 2 1(d)(ii) 2019 and 2020 and 2021; 1 1(d)(iii) 6; 1 1(d)(iv) any two from: (in 2021 the) cost to build has decreased; less public objections; more expertise to build; greater demand; increased technology / research; greater economic development; 2 1(e) three from: (carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is captured and) compressed; transported via pipelines / roads / ships; pumped; into rocks / stored underground / stored in (natural) saline aquifers; an impermeable layer of rock above the store; 3 1(f) any two from: albedo enhancement; space reflectors; stratospheric aerosols; 2

This question in 8291/22 May/June 2024

1 (a) Fig. 1.1 shows the total fertility rate for 2020. Total fertility rate is the number of children born per woman. Key number of children per woman no data 0 1 2 3 4+ Tropic of Cancer Equator Tropic of Capricorn Fig. 1.1 (i) Describe the distribution shown in Fig. 1.1. … … … … … … [3] (ii) Explain why a lower fertility rate reduces the impact of climate change. … … … … … … [3] (iii) State three factors that affect fertility rate. 1 … 2 … 3 … [3] (b) Table 1.1 shows the dependency ratio for Bangladesh in 2001 and 2021. Table 1.1 year dependency ratio 2001 75 2021 44 Suggest two reasons why the dependency ratio has decreased. 1 … … 2 … … [2] (c) A report estimated that adapting to the impacts of climate change will cost countries with low‑income economies $300 billion a year by 2030. The photograph in Fig. 1.2 shows a road across a shallow river. Fig. 1.2 Explain why the impacts of climate change will require the road to be adapted. … … … … [2] (d) The divided bar chart in Fig. 1.3 shows information about the number of carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities from 2010 to 2021. Key planned under construction operational 100 80 60 number of facilities 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 year Fig. 1.3 (i) Complete the bar on Fig. 1.3 for 2018 to show there were 15 planned CCS facilities. [2] (ii) State which years had the most operational CCS facilities. … [1] (iii) State the number of CCS facilities that were under construction in 2016. … [1] (iv) Suggest two reasons why the number of planned CCS facilities in 2010 was fewer than the number of planned CCS facilities in 2021. 1 … … 2 … … [2] (e) Describe how carbon capture and storage (CCS) reduces the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. … … … … … … [3] (f) Solar radiation management (SRM) is a strategy which aims to reduce the impact of climate change. State two examples of SRM. 1 … 2 … [2] [Total: 24]

24 marks

Mark scheme: 1(a)(i) any three from: highest fertility rate in Africa; west coast of Americas higher than east coast; higher numbers for LICs compared to HICs; relevant quoted data for a continent; e.g. all of Europe has 12 child per woman; relevant quoted data for a country; e.g. Niger has 67 children per woman; AVP; 1(a)(ii) any three from: (fewer people so) less stated (e.g. food) resources used / needed; less energy consumption / less fossil fuels combusted; less carbon dioxide produced / methane / greenhouse gas; reduction in (enhanced) greenhouse effect / global warming; 3 1(a)(iii) any three from: (availability or cost) of contraception; education about contraception; improved education / opportunities for women; availability or improved or cost of health care; (local, national, global) policies; cultural reasons; 3 1(b) any two from: more working age people / more 1564 people; migration of working age people into country; change in birth rate; reduction in life expectancy / death rate of older people increases; 2 1(c) any two from: water level rise; extreme weather / flooding; (surface) erosion; will need to build a bridge / find a different route across the river / divert river; 2 Question Answer Marks 1(d)(i) correct plotting; bar same width and not touching and shading to match key; 2 1(d)(ii) 2019 and 2020 and 2021; 1 1(d)(iii) 6; 1 1(d)(iv) any two from: (in 2021 the) cost to build has decreased; less public objections; more expertise to build; greater demand; increased technology / research; greater economic development; 2 1(e) three from: (carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is captured and) compressed; transported via pipelines / roads / ships; pumped; into rocks / stored underground / stored in (natural) saline aquifers; an impermeable layer of rock above the store; 3 1(f) any two from: albedo enhancement; space reflectors; stratospheric aerosols; 2

This question in 8291/23 May/June 2024

4 (a) In 2022, the world population was 7.9 billion. 56% of the world’s population lived in cities. (i) Calculate the number of people, in billions, who lived in cities in 2022. Give your answer to two significant figures. … billion [2] (ii) Explain the impacts of increased urbanisation on water security. … … … … … … … … … … [5] (b) Milan is a city in Italy, Europe. (i) Fig. 4.1 shows a ‘vertical forest’ in Milan. Fig. 4.1 The vertical forest is two residential tower blocks. Each block is covered in 800 trees, 4500 shrubs and 15 000 small plants. The vertical forest covers an area of 20 000 m2. Suggest the benefits to the environment of a vertical forest. Give reasons for your answer. … … … … … … … … … … [5] (ii) Milan has an area of 181.76 km2. In 2022, the population of Milan was 1.352 million people. Calculate the population density of Milan in 2022. Give the unit for your answer. population density = … unit … [2] (iii) State two economic factors that affect population density. 1 … … 2 … … [2] (iv) Explain how environmental factors affect population density. … … … … … … … … [4] CLES 2025 8291/22/M/J/25

20 marks

Mark scheme: 4(a)(i) MP1 4.424; 2 MP2 4.4; 4(a)(ii) any five from: 5 MP1 increase cost of water; MP2 greater demand / demand greater than supply; MP3 more water intensive e.g. more manufacturing or use of domestic appliance; MP4 increased burden on sanitation services; MP5 leads to contamination of water; MP6 disruption of water cycle; MP7 more run-off; MP8 more groundwater extracted; 4(b)(i) any five from: 5 MP1 plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere; MP2 carbon dioxide + water → oxygen + glucose; MP3 by photosynthesis; MP4 reduces impact of, global warming / climate change; MP5 habitat for organisms / increase biodiversity; MP6 absorb / trap atmospheric pollutants e.g. particulates; MP7 increase interception of rain; MP8 trees can cool local temperatures; 4(b)(ii) MP1 7438(.380); 2 MP2 people / km2; 4(b)(iii) any two from: 2 MP1 (availability) of jobs; MP2 (rate of pay) for jobs; MP3 cost of healthcare; MP4 cost of land / cost of houses; MP5 level of taxation; MP6 cost of education; MP7 available transport services; 4(b)(iv) any four from: 4 MP1 relief of land / terrain AND low land enables more building / mountains, limits building / flood plains more liable to flood; MP2 tectonic activity / natural disasters / earthquakes / volcanoes / tsunamis AND discourages settlement; MP3 extreme weather / extreme temperatures / desert conditions AND prevents or discourages settlement; MP4 enough water AND to grow crops / human survival; MP5 abundance of resources AND e.g. coal/oil/wood/fishing enables trade or provides food; MP6 high soil fertility AND enables enough food to be grown; AVP; 4(c)(i) 2 MP1 line drawn where two bars meet between 65–69 and 60–64; MP2 line drawn where two bars meet between 15–19 and 10–14; 4(c)(ii) any two from for a LIC: 2 MP1 higher number of young dependents; MP2 wide base; MP3 fewer people reach older age; MP4 tapers or become narrower / height of pyramid lower;

This question in 8291/22 May/June 2025

4 (a) In 2022, the world population was 7.9 billion. 56% of the world’s population lived in cities. (i) Calculate the number of people, in billions, who lived in cities in 2022. Give your answer to two significant figures. … billion [2] (ii) Explain the impacts of increased urbanisation on water security. … … … … … … … … … … [5] (b) Milan is a city in Italy, Europe. (i) Fig. 4.1 shows a ‘vertical forest’ in Milan. Fig. 4.1 The vertical forest is two residential tower blocks. Each block is covered in 800 trees, 4500 shrubs and 15 000 small plants. The vertical forest covers an area of 20 000 m2. Suggest the benefits to the environment of a vertical forest. Give reasons for your answer. … … … … … … … … … … [5] (ii) Milan has an area of 181.76 km2. In 2022, the population of Milan was 1.352 million people. Calculate the population density of Milan in 2022. Give the unit for your answer. population density = … unit … [2] (iii) State two economic factors that affect population density. 1 … … 2 … … [2] (iv) Explain how environmental factors affect population density. … … … … … … … … [4] CLES 2025 8291/23/M/J/25

20 marks

Mark scheme: 4(a)(i) MP1 4.424; 2 MP2 4.4; 4(a)(ii) any five from: 5 MP1 increase cost of water; MP2 greater demand / demand greater than supply; MP3 more water intensive e.g. more manufacturing or use of domestic appliance; MP4 increased burden on sanitation services; MP5 leads to contamination of water; MP6 disruption of water cycle; MP7 more run-off; MP8 more groundwater extracted; 4(b)(i) any five from: 5 MP1 plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere; MP2 carbon dioxide + water → oxygen + glucose; MP3 by photosynthesis; MP4 reduces impact of, global warming / climate change; MP5 habitat for organisms / increase biodiversity; MP6 absorb / trap atmospheric pollutants e.g. particulates; MP7 increase interception of rain; MP8 trees can cool local temperatures; 4(b)(ii) MP1 7438(.380); 2 MP2 people / km2; 4(b)(iii) any two from: 2 MP1 (availability) of jobs; MP2 (rate of pay) for jobs; MP3 cost of healthcare; MP4 cost of land / cost of houses; MP5 level of taxation; MP6 cost of education; MP7 available transport services; 4(b)(iv) any four from: 4 MP1 relief of land / terrain AND low land enables more building / mountains, limits building / flood plains more liable to flood; MP2 tectonic activity / natural disasters / earthquakes / volcanoes / tsunamis AND discourages settlement; MP3 extreme weather / extreme temperatures / desert conditions AND prevents or discourages settlement; MP4 enough water AND to grow crops / human survival; MP5 abundance of resources AND e.g. coal/oil/wood/fishing enables trade or provides food; MP6 high soil fertility AND enables enough food to be grown; AVP; 4(c)(i) 2 MP1 line drawn where two bars meet between 65–69 and 60–64; MP2 line drawn where two bars meet between 15–19 and 10–14; 4(c)(ii) any two from for a LIC: 2 MP1 higher number of young dependents; MP2 wide base; MP3 fewer people reach older age; MP4 tapers or become narrower / height of pyramid lower;

This question in 8291/23 May/June 2025

1 Bangladesh is a country in Asia. Bangladesh is classified as a country with a lower middle-income economy. (a) (i) Bangladesh has an area of 147 630 km2. In 2022, the population was 172 940 000. Calculate the population density for Bangladesh in 2022. Give your answer as a whole number. … people / km2 [2] (ii) Describe how environmental factors influence population density. … … … … … … … … [4] (b) Fig. 1.1 shows part of the population pyramid for Bangladesh. 100+ male female 95–99 90–94 85–89 80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 age 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 percentage of population Fig. 1.1 Complete Fig. 1.1 using the data in Table 1.1. Table 1.1 percentage of population age male female 15−19 5 45−49 3 [2] (c) Fig. 1.2 shows the past and predicted trend in population for Bangladesh. 2022 = 172 940 000 population 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 year Fig. 1.2 Suggest reasons for the trend in the predicted population for Bangladesh. … … … … … … … … [4] (d) The vulnerability of a country to climate change and its readiness to adapt to climate change is estimated in a report. Countries are given a score and a rank out of 182 countries. The highest score has a high rank of 1. A high rank shows a country is less vulnerable and more ready to adapt to climate change. Table 1.2 shows this data for three countries in 2020. Table 1.2 country score rank Norway 75.4 1 Bangladesh 36.9 164 Chad 26.7 182 (i) The report stated that it will take more than 100 years for current low-ranking countries to reach the scores of current high-ranking countries. Suggest why this statement is a concern for Bangladesh. … … … … [2] (ii) Table 1.3 shows the scores for Bangladesh from 2000 to 2020. Table 1.3 year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 score 37.1 37.4 44.0 34.8 36.9 Plot a bar chart of the data. [4] [Total: 18]

18 marks

Mark scheme: Question Answer Marks 1(a)(i) M1 1171.4; 2 M2 rounded correctly / 1171; 1(a)(ii) M1 idea that some (environmental) factors, increase population density / decrease population density; 4 any three factors described: M2 suitable climate e.g. weather not too hot or not too cold / enough rain; M3 relief of land e.g. not too hilly; M4 suitable soil fertility (to grow crops); M5 (availability of, or access to) natural resources / (natural) energy / food / minerals; M6 (availability of, or access to) water (supply); M7 low risk of natural hazards; M8 access to coast, for fishing / recreation / trade / transport; 1(b) M1 correct plotting: male = 5% and female = 3%; 2 M2 same width bars; 1(c) total four from: 4 max three increase (to 2060): M1 improved health care; M2 improved sanitation; M3 economic position of Bangladesh improves / becomes a HIC or HMIC; M4 stated economic or social reason for migration to Bangladesh e.g. for jobs, for education, for housing, to escape conflict; max three decrease (2060 onwards) M5 improved availability of contraception; M6 improved education about contraception; M7 improved, education / opportunities for women; M8 limited availability of stated resource e.g. water, food, energy; M9 impact of climate change / stated impact e.g. flooding; 1(d)(i) any two from: 2 M1 Bangladesh has, low rank / low score and will take (100 / many) years to improve; M2 impacts (of climate change) are ongoing / climate change is ongoing; M3 will need investment, to become climate ready; M4 high population will be affected by climate change; M5 (this will) lead to migration; M6 stated climate change impact e.g. extreme weather / flooding / sea level rise; 1(d)(ii) M1 axes labels: score and all years indicated / year; 4 M2 suitable linear scale whereby plotted data occupies at least half the grid; M3 bars of equal width and equally spaced and not touching; M4 5 correct plots;

This question in 8291/22 Oct/Nov 2025