Cambridge A Level Thinking Skills 9694 — 2017 Oct/Nov Paper 2 · Variant 2

This document consists of 6 printed pages, 2 blank pages and 1 insert. DC (NF) 129878/2 © UCLES 2017 [Turn over Cambridge International Examinations Cambridge International Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level * 2 9 8 7 2 8 2 8 1 1 * THINKING SKILLS 9694/22 Paper 2 Critical Thinking October/November 2017 1 hour 45 minutes No Additional Materials are required. READ THESE INSTRUCTIONS FIRST An answer booklet is provided inside this question paper. You should follow the instructions on the front cover of the answer booklet. If you need additional answer paper ask the invigilator for a continuation booklet. Answer all the questions. The number of marks is given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question.

2 9694/22/O/N/17 © UCLES 2017 1 Study the evidence and answer the questions that follow. Source A News report Newton Daily Record 19th March 2017 The chief executive of Alpha Holdings, Tom Bland, has been accused of ‘insider trading’. Insider trading is the term used to describe dealing in company shares on the basis of information that is not yet publicly known and which would affect the price of shares if it were made public. This is an unfair way to obtain financial gains and is damaging to others. It is a serious offence, usually punished with a prison sentence of up to 15 years. In an article in the Newton Financial Times on 17th March 2017, Bland is accused of selling shares in Alpha Holdings the day before the collapse of a deal (12th March 2017) to merge with a rival firm, Beta Systems. Alpha Holdings shares had reached a record high in expectation of the deal going through. By selling shares the day before the collapse, Bland secured gains of $3 000 000 which would have been lost if he had not made use of his inside knowledge and sold the shares before the general public were aware of the impending collapse of the merger. Source B Email 10th March 2017 Hi Jim I hope things are OK with you. After hearing about your trip last year, I am planning a world cruise with my wife and family in the summer. I intend to be generous as I have an expectation of coming into some money soon, so it’s first class cabins all round! Regards Tom Source C News report Newton Financial Times 9th March 2017 There are rumours that the deal to merge Alpha Holdings and Beta Systems has run into some late stage problems. The deal is due to be finalised on 12th March. Neither side would comment on these rumours. Shareholders in Alpha Holdings, who have already seen a sharp rise in the value of their shares, might want to consider securing this gain by selling them. Whilst many forecasters are predicting that shares in the new company will carry on rising after the deal has gone through, it may be a case of ‘a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush’.

3 9694/22/O/N/17 © UCLES 2017 [Turn over Source D Letter from Bland’s lawyer to Newton Financial Times 21st March 2017 My client intends to take legal action against your paper as a result of the defamatory article you published on 17th March 2017, accusing him of insider trading. An article in your own paper advising shareholders to sell shares in Alpha Holdings appeared only days before the collapse of the deal. There were a great many Alpha Holdings shares sold on the day before the collapse of the deal. Mr Bland was simply exercising his legal right to sell his shares at a price he thought was attractive. Source E Extract from ‘Ruthless Chancer’, a memoir by Tom Bland Published in 2012 The business world is no place for those with a tender conscience. Your goal is to make money – the term ‘ethical investment’, favoured by some liberal commentators, is a contradiction. Those who reach the top of the heap will have stamped on a few heads to get there. Nor is the business world a place for worriers – if you take no risks you will make no money. (a) How significant is the evidence in Source B as regards the allegations of insider trading by Bland? [3] (b) How useful is the evidence in Source D that many shares were sold on the day before the collapse of the deal in supporting Bland’s defence? [3] (c) How relevant is the evidence in Source E? [3] (d) How likely is it that Tom Bland is guilty of insider trading? Write a short, reasoned argument to support your conclusion, with critical reference to the evidence provided and considering a plausible alternative conclusion. [6]

4 9694/22/O/N/17 © UCLES 2017 2 Study the evidence and answer the questions that follow. Source A Promotional literature from eye clinic Laser eye surgery is the most commonly performed surgical procedure in the world. Over 24 million people have benefited from laser eye treatment. A laser eye operation is like any other medical procedure with respect to the fact that there are some risks involved. However, the risks are minimal, especially in comparison to other commonly performed medical procedures, such as those carried out by dentists. We use the most advanced technology in all of our clinics and our eye surgeons are amongst the most experienced, so there is nothing to worry about if you choose to have laser eye surgery. What you will be able to do is say goodbye to glasses and hello to contact sports such as football. Source B Press release by campaign group against laser eye treatment Clever marketing techniques have been used by big business in order to promote laser eye surgery as a way of getting rid of the need to wear glasses. However, this technique only deals with short sight, i.e. problems with mid- to long-distance vision. Most people need to wear reading glasses, typically after the age of 45, to correct long sight, i.e. difficulty in reading books, magazines etc. Whilst it is suggested that laser eye surgery allows people to play contact sports, some medical experts advise that individuals who play contact sports are not good candidates for it. This is because the surgery involves cutting the cornea and as a result of this it never goes back to its original strength. The danger of re-opening the incision due to a blow on the head is then greatly increased if there is participation in contact sports. Source C Survey on after-effects of laser eye surgery 30% of those who responded to the survey reported having dry eyes after laser eye surgery. 45% suffered some problems with night vision, including a halo effect around headlights when driving at night. 20% of subjects found they became sensitive to light and had to wear dark glasses in sunlight. Laser eye surgery is irreversible and unnecessary; there are other well-tried and tested ways of correcting sight problems, such as wearing glasses or contact lenses, so people might want to consider carefully before opting for this treatment.

5 9694/22/O/N/17 © UCLES 2017 [Turn over Source D A reply to critics of laser eye surgery by leading provider As with all medical procedures, there are a minority of cases where patients experience complications. Laser eye surgery is no different in this respect. Our critics tend to highlight this minority of cases. 99% of our patients report that they can see perfectly well without glasses after having had the surgery. However, there is a need for more regulation in the industry: there is some evidence that procedures are carried out incompetently by inexperienced staff in unscrupulous firms offering laser eye surgery at an unrealistically low price. It should also be noted that laser eye surgery is not appropriate for those with certain eye problems. We would not recommend it for people with extremely short sight or people with diabetes. (a) Suggest three reasons why the comparison in Source A of the risks involved in laser eye surgery with those in dentistry may not be valid. [3] (b) “99% of our patients report that they can see perfectly well without glasses after having had the surgery” (Source D). How good a response would this be to the points being made in Source B? [3] (c) Suggest two explanations that might be used by the laser eye surgery provider in Source D to explain the statistics in Source C. You should outline why these explanations might be used. [3] (d) ‘Laser eye surgery is a risky procedure which should be avoided.’ To what extent do you agree with this claim? Write a short, reasoned argument to support your conclusion, using and evaluating the information provided in Sources A–D. [6]

6 9694/22/O/N/17 © UCLES 2017 3 Read the passage and answer the questions below. 1 There is a widespread problem of obesity in the developed countries of the world due to over- eating and physical inactivity. Participation in sports would help people to lose weight. Health systems are spending a disproportionate amount of their budgets in combating the problems associated with obesity, such as heart disease and diabetes. We should encourage people to participate in sports in order to improve their health. 2 A society in which the vast majority of people participated in sport would put less strain on hospital accident and emergency units. This is because the population would be healthier. Spending on health would be kept under control. Uncontrolled and increasing health spending is a major threat to the finances of developed countries. 3 Sport encourages a competitive and achievement-orientated mindset. This is functional in a global economic system where trade is international. A society where participation in sport is central will be well-placed to compete in the modern world. So sport brings economic benefits. 4 The physical strain put on the body by many sports can lead to muscle and joint problems. A growing branch of the medical profession is concerned with treating sports-related injuries and the keen sportsman will probably have to consult these people on a regular basis. However, this does not undermine the psychological and physical benefits of participation in sport. Sports injuries are a price worth paying. 5 Whilst there are other ways of being physically active, such as walking, they do not have the psychological advantages of sport as regards fostering team spirit and competition. Lacking these psychological advantages means they lack the character-building dimension that sport provides. Many people who regularly play sports go on to have very successful careers. This shows that participating in sport has been a key ingredient in their success. We must conclude that there is no substitute for sport as a means of keeping fit. (a) Using the exact words from the passage as far as possible, identify the main conclusion. [2] (b) Using the exact words from the passage as far as possible, identify three intermediate conclusions. [3] (c) Evaluate the strength of the reasoning in the argument. In your answer you should consider any flaws, unstated assumptions and other weaknesses. [5] (d) ‘Television has had a negative impact on sport.’ Write your own short argument to support or challenge this claim. The conclusion of your argument must be stated. Credit will not be given for repeating ideas from the passage. [5]

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® IGCSE is a registered trademark. This document consists of 9 printed pages. © UCLES 2017 [Turn over Cambridge Assessment International Education Cambridge International Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level THINKING SKILLS 9694/22 Paper 2 Critical Thinking October/November 2017 MARK SCHEME Maximum Mark: 45 Published This mark scheme is published as an aid to teachers and candidates, to indicate the requirements of the examination. It shows the basis on which Examiners were instructed to award marks. It does not indicate the details of the discussions that took place at an Examiners’ meeting before marking began, which would have considered the acceptability of alternative answers. Mark schemes should be read in conjunction with the question paper and the Principal Examiner Report for Teachers. Cambridge International will not enter into discussions about these mark schemes. Cambridge International is publishing the mark schemes for the October/November 2017 series for most Cambridge IGCSE®, Cambridge International A and AS Level components and some Cambridge O Level components.

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 2 of 9 Question Answer Marks 1(a) Limited significance [1]. Although the money referred to by Bland could well be the proceeds from selling his shares in Alpha Holdings [1], and the plausibility of this is strengthened by the date of the email [1], it offers no evidence that this sale is due to insider trading [1]. Also, we cannot be sure that the money referred to is from the sale of these shares [1]. 3 1(b) Not useful [1] (in Bland’s defence). It is unreliable as Bland’s lawyers will have a vested interest to lie or distort the truth [1] We do not know what proportion of these sales was due to Bland selling his shares [1]. It is possible that all or the vast bulk of these shares were Bland’s, given the amount of money he gained as evidenced in Source A [1]. The fact that many shares were sold on the day in question might indicate that the insider information was widely leaked i.e. that Bland was not the only offender but this does not show him to be innocent [1] Alternatively Quite useful [1]. The fact that Bland waited for two days after the newspaper article before selling his shares might indicate Bland’s innocence [1] (if one supposes that their value was likely to go down in that time). 3 1(c) It could be relevant [1]. Bland’s amoral attitude and willingness to take risks could mean he is willing to do inside trading [1] but we cannot assume this [1] However, even if he had no inner moral restraints about insider trading he might still be deterred by the threat of going to prison [1] – which is mentioned as the penalty for insider trading in Source A. Also, his reference to risk-taking may apply purely in the sense of gambling with money rather than risk in a broader sense [1]. 3

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 3 of 9 Question Answer Marks 1(d) Level 3 5–6 marks A strong answer, which provides a reasoned argument including thorough evaluation of all or most of the evidence to support an acceptable conclusion in terms of probability and evaluates the plausibility of at least one alternative conclusion. Level 2 3–4 marks An answer which evaluates some of the evidence, draws an acceptable conclusion in terms of probability and may mention the plausibility of at least one alternative conclusion. Level 1 1–2 marks A weak answer, which refers to some of the evidence, possibly including a simple evaluative comment. The conclusion may be unstated or over-stated. Level 0 0 marks No credit-worthy material. Indicative content Possible answers: • Bland is not guilty and was simply securing his gains possibly prompted by the rumours. • Bland is guilty and knew the talks were going to collapse the next day. • Bland actually started the rumours to provide a cover for his insider trading • Bland started the rumours and scuppered the deal to secure his gains. The main problem for Bland is explaining the timing of his sale the day before the collapse. It seems fortuitous if this was just a normal sale of shares. On the other hand, because it looks so suspicious to sell the shares the day before, if it had been a case of insider trading by Bland he might have done this a few days before to allay suspicion. This would also have the advantage of selling before people acted on the rumours. The fact that he delays acting until the 11th hour suggests he wasn’t the source of the rumours. The source of the rumours is a crucial question and Bland could have a motive to spread such rumours to cover his tracks. Also, we need to know more about why the deal collapsed and whether Bland had a hand in this. If it collapsed unexpectedly at the last minute it is difficult to see how Bland could have foreseen this. The idea that Bland deliberately scuppered the deal seems implausible if it is true that shares were expected to go on rising once the deal had gone through. 6

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 4 of 9 Question Answer Marks 1(d) Notes for the guidance of markers Simple supported conclusion 1 (if no conclusion cap at Level 2) + simple consideration of alternative +1 AND reasoned rejection of alternative +1 + explicit use of some (3 or fewer) sources of evidence +1 OR explicit use of all or most (4 or more) sources of evidence +2 + critical evaluation of evidence +1 or (more than one case) +2 + good inferential reasoning +1 or (more than one case) +2 Max 6 Question Answer Marks 2(a) 1 mark for each plausible reason, for example: • It is not possible to compare specific ‘laser eye treatment’ with unspecific dental procedures. • It is not possible to compare widespread routine dental procedures with a minority non-routine procedure like laser eye surgery. • We don’t know if the chance of something going wrong is at all similar for eye surgery and dentistry. • We don’t have enough information to judge the relative necessity of these procedures. • The severity of the consequences of something going wrong is probably greater in eye surgery than in dentistry. • Teeth can be replaced but eyes cannot. 3 2(b) Not good at all [1]. It fails to have any impact on the point about needing reading glasses in later life [1]. It also fails to have any impact on the point about the risk of contact sports [1]. 3 2(c) 1 mark for each explanation identified (max 2): • The statistics are a result of the procedure being carried out incompetently by their cheaper rivals. • The statistics are a result of the procedure being carried out on inappropriate people. • The after-effects are self-reported, so the numbers are likely to over- represent the occurrence of such problems. • No timeframe is given; these after-effects could be only temporary (and so arguably not serious). • There may be effective treatment for the problems identified • These eye problems may be being wrongly attributed to the eye surgery. 1 mark for a clear outline (see below) of why they might be used: All these explanations would suggest that there is little or nothing wrong with the actual procedure. Any problems are temporary/treatable. 3

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 5 of 9 Question Answer Marks 2(d) Level 3 5–6 marks A reasoned argument, which uses and evaluates all or most of the evidence provided. Level 2 3–4 marks A simple argument, which uses and/or evaluates evidence. Level 1 1–2 marks A weak answer, which makes some correct reference to evidence but consists of opinion and/or assertion rather than argument or a weak argument which makes no reference to evidence. Level 0 0 marks No credit-worthy material. Indicative content Source A • Highly popular procedure • Comparable in risk to other medical procedures • However from a biased source Source B • Reading glasses will still be needed in later life • Not suitable for people involved in contact sports • Above points undermine claims in last sentence of Source A • However, reading glasses might not be needed at all times • The degree of risk re contact sports is unknown Source C • Evidence for a number of problems after laser eye treatment • Treatment is irreversible • Treatment is unnecessary Source D • 99% report they can see perfectly well • If true, suggests those who have problems are either unsuitable for treatment or have suffered incompetent treatment. The procedure is OK. • However this point fails to address the issues raised in Source B • The above statistic also fails to challenge the fact that the procedure is irreversible 6

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 6 of 9 Question Answer Marks 2(d) Notes for the guidance of markers Simple supported conclusion 1 OR nuanced conclusion 2 + use of 1 or 2 sources +1 OR use of all or most (3 or more) sources of evidence +2 not just mentioning or summarising or comprehension + critical evaluation of evidence +1 or (more than one case) +2 + good inferential reasoning +1 or (more than one case) +2 not speculation + personal thinking +1 Max 6

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 7 of 9 Question Answer Marks 3(a) 2 marks: We should encourage people to participate in sports in order to improve their health 1 mark: We should encourage people to participate in sports. 2 3(b) 1 mark for each of the following, to a maximum of 3 marks: • A society in which the vast majority of people participated in sport would put less strain on hospital accident and emergency units. • Spending on health would be kept under control. • (So) sport brings economic benefits. • Sports injuries are a price worth paying. • (We must conclude that) there is no substitute for sport as a means of keeping fit. Allow one additional element or one significant omission in each case. If more than three answers are offered, mark the first four only. 3

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 8 of 9 Question Answer Marks 3(c) Marks for each evaluative point as follows, up to a maximum of 5 marks: 2 marks: Valid evaluative point, clearly expressed. 1 mark: Weak attempt at a valid evaluative point. Paragraph 1 • Assumption – all sports involve physical activity. • Assumption – participation in sport would not encourage over-eating. • Assumption – heart disease and diabetes can be relieved through losing weight. Paragraph 2 • Assumption – people with long term health conditions are frequent users of accident and emergency units. • Assumption –reduction in use of A and E by people with obesity etc will be greater than the increase in sports related injuries. • Flaw – a healthier population is not a sufficient condition for keeping health spending under control. Paragraph 3 • Inconsistency: it is possible that a competitive mindset might be bad for health / undermine health benefits of sport. • The support given to the MC by this IC is vague and inaccurate. • Equivocation in use of the word ‘competing’ Paragraph 4 • Inconsistency – points here undermine reasoning in paragraph 2. • Ambiguity – ‘price worth paying’ could be true in a figurative sense for the individual but not true for economics of health care. • Incoherence: it is not clear how getting injured would not undermine the physical benefits of participation in sports. Paragraph 5 • Assumption – non-sporting activities do not build character in other ways. • Flaw – generalisation; ‘team spirit’ only applies to team sports. • Flaw – post hoc. Assumed causal relationship between participation in sport and successful careers. • Flaw – the intermediate conclusion about keeping fit does not follow from the reasoning used. General evaluative point: Much of the reasoning only supports the first part of the conclusion rather than the specific conclusion ‘in order to improve health’. (Do not credit in addition to the same point made specifically about the IC of paragraph 3.) 5

9694/22 Cambridge International AS/A Level – Mark Scheme PUBLISHED October/November 2017 © UCLES 2017 Page 9 of 9 Question Answer Marks 3(d) Level 3 4–5 marks Developed, coherent argument. Reasons strongly support conclusion. Development may include intermediate conclusion or apt examples. Simply structured argument – 4 marks. Effective use of IC etc. – 5 marks. Level 2 2–3 marks A simple argument. One reason + conclusion – 2 marks. Two or more separate reasons + conclusion – 3 marks. Level 1 1 mark Some relevant comment. Level 0 0 marks No relevant comment. Maximum 3 marks for wrong conclusion or if conclusion is implied but not stated. No credit for material merely reproduced from the passage. Specimen level 3 answers Support (118 words) Selling rights to screen sporting events has been a key contributor to the over- commercialisation of sport. Ticket prices have increased massively as ownership of sporting clubs has passed to businessmen who see them mainly as a way of making money. Many ordinary fans cannot afford these ticket prices so are deprived of the right to see live sport. Sportsmen and women are also drawn into this world where making money becomes the key focus. They are involved in lucrative sponsorship deals with leading sports goods manufacturers. Firms are only willing to pay these huge sums because they know the player will be seen by millions of people on television. So television has had a negative impact on sport. Challenge (115 words) Whilst some sports, like football, have become increasingly commercialised due to lucrative television deals, sport is played at a local level by ordinary people much as it has always been. Only at the very top professional level has televising sport had an impact on its nature. So it would be a massive generalisation to say television has had a negative impact on sport. It is also possible that watching sport on television has made a significant number of people interested in participating in a sport in the first place. So, in this case, television has actually had a positive impact on sport. So it is not true that television has had a negative impact on sport. 5