Cambridge A Level Thinking Skills 9694 — 2016 Oct/Nov Paper 2 · Variant 3

This document consists of 6 printed pages, 2 blank pages and 1 insert. IB16 11_9694_23/4RP © UCLES 2016 [Turn over  Cambridge International Examinations Cambridge International Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level THINKING SKILLS 9694/23 Paper 2 Critical Thinking October/November 2016 1 hour 45 minutes No Additional Materials are required. READ THESE INSTRUCTIONS FIRST An answer booklet is provided inside this question paper. You should follow the instructions on the front cover of the answer booklet. If you need additional answer paper ask the invigilator for a continuation booklet. Answer all the questions. The number of marks is given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question.

2 © UCLES 2016 9694/23/O/N/16 1 Study the evidence and answer the questions that follow. Source A Email to info@mnqtransport.com I obtained your contact email from your company’s website. I thought you would want to know that at about 8.30 this morning I observed one of your drivers using a mobile phone while driving a lorry down Oxton Road towards the motorway. Quite apart from the fact that using a mobile phone while driving is illegal, he did not seem to be in full charge of the vehicle. The lorry was heavily laden and travelling significantly faster than allowed in a residential area. If anyone had stepped onto the pedestrian crossing, I am sure the driver would not have been able to stop in time. Derek Brown Source B Letter from MNQ Transport to Mr E Chan, driver A member of the public has reported that he saw one of our drivers using a mobile phone and driving too fast down Oxton Road at 8.30 this morning. According to our duty rosters, you were the only driver whose route could have taken him down that road at that time. The company takes illegal and dangerous driving very seriously, and you should therefore take this letter as a formal and final warning. Any repetition of such dangerous behaviour will result in summary dismissal. Source C Letter from Mr E Chan to MNQ Transport Although I did drive down Oxton Road on the morning in question, it was at least 30 minutes later than the time your informant says he saw one of our lorries being driven dangerously. My union has advised me that a formal warning cannot be issued until after an official hearing has taken place. Furthermore, I am entitled to be accompanied by a union representative at such a hearing and to be given an opportunity to answer the accusation which has been made. Since no such hearing has been held, you must withdraw the letter. Source D Letter from Mr J Lopez to MNQ Transport I am writing in support of my friend Mr Chan. I have worked with him for more than ten years and I believe he is a careful driver. I do not believe he would drive at an unsafe speed or while using a mobile phone.

3 © UCLES 2016 9694/23/O/N/16 [Turn over Source E Letter from MNQ Transport to Mr E Chan, driver We are pleased to inform you that after considering all the facts in the case, the formal warning has been withdrawn and the letter concerning it has been removed from our records. (a) Suggest two pieces of further evidence which, if true, would affect the reliability of Source A, and state the effect in each case. [4] (b) Is Source C an argument? Briefly justify your answer. [2] (c) Suggest and briefly explain two reasons why Source D is of little use in deciding whether Mr Chan had driven dangerously down Oxton Road. [3] (d) How likely do you think it is that Mr Chan drove dangerously down Oxton Road? Write a short, reasoned argument to support your conclusion, with critical reference to the evidence provided and considering a plausible alternative conclusion. [6]

4 © UCLES 2016 9694/23/O/N/16 2 Study the evidence and answer the questions that follow. Source A Extract from medical book The placebo effect – when patients feel better as a result of taking a medicine with no active ingredient – can be surprisingly strong. In one study, patients allegedly reported improvements even though they actually knew they were taking a dummy pill. The effect is based on the patient’s expectation of a cure and the most impressive results seem to be based on subjective measures such as levels of pain. The size, colour, and branding of placebo treatments have all been shown to influence their effectiveness. Source B News report Most family doctors in the UK have given a placebo to at least one of their patients, a recent survey suggests. About 1 in 10 of the doctors in the study said they had given a patient a sugar pill or an injection of salty water rather than a real medicine at some time in their career. 1 in 100 of them said they did this at least once a week. Almost all of the family doctors said they had provided patients with treatments, like vitamins, complementary medicines or medication intended for other illnesses, that were unproven for their medical condition. Three quarters of the doctors said they offered unproven treatments on a daily or weekly basis. Source C Letter to newspaper in reply to Source B The placebo effect is mostly an illusion, based on the fact that patients naturally tend to recover from illnesses. It is impossible to justify such treatments ethically, because they are based on deception. Doctors should never deliberately deceive their patients. If a doctor’s first reaction is to prescribe a placebo, serious illnesses may go untreated for longer, with possibly devastating consequences for the patient. And that’s before considering the cost of placebo treatments. Source D Research report A professor from Harvard Medical School conducted an experiment to help patients experiencing severe pain in their arms. Half of the patients were given pain-reducing pills, while the others received acupuncture treatments. Most of the patients reported a reduction in their pain, especially those who had received acupuncture. Significant numbers of the patients reported severe side-effects to both forms of treatment. These side-effects were exactly what patients had been warned might occur as a result of the treatment. But this study did not prove what it appeared to prove. The pills which were given to the patients were actually made of cornstarch, and the so-called acupuncture needles were fakes, which never pierced the skin. The experiment was actually a study of the placebo effect.

5 © UCLES 2016 9694/23/O/N/16 [Turn over Source E Extract from website www.InventedByAMommy.com Inventing Obecalp®* Jennifer Buettner’s tale is the same story which millions of women before her have experienced. She enjoyed a successful job as a legal secretary, but Jen’s career was joyfully interrupted by love, marriage, pregnancy and motherhood. Suddenly Jen was “mommy” to 3 beautiful children (all under the age of 14 months). Jen’s energies were now diverted to the love, nurturing and promise of the future of 3 precious babies. One day, an off-hand comment led her to the discovery of a lifetime. While discussing the over-prescribing and lack of efficacy of children’s drugs, she asked, “Why, when drugs are not needed, couldn’t children, adults and seniors be given a placebo by their medical authority figure instead?” Jen was amazed to learn that even though there is definitive proof of the ‘placebo effect’ and its wonderful benefits, no standardized, branded placebo tablets or liquid existed for sale anywhere in the world. She knew what she had to do. After untold hours of hard work and determination, she invented Obecalp® as the first standardized, pharmaceutical grade placebo available for sale in retail stores and via the internet. The response has been spectacular. *Obecalp is the word “placebo” spelled backwards. (a) How well does the evidence in Source B support its claim that “Most family doctors have given a placebo to at least one of their patients”? [3] (b) The manufacturers of Obecalp® recommend it particularly for use with children. Suggest and briefly explain two reasons why a placebo might be more useful for children than adults. [4] (c) The author of Source C claims that placebos are based on deception. Identify one point from the sources which is inconsistent with this claim, and briefly explain why it is inconsistent. [2] (d) ‘Doctors should not prescribe treatments which have no active ingredients.’ To what extent do you agree with this claim? Write a short, reasoned argument to support your conclusion, using and evaluating the information provided in Sources A–E. [6]

6 © UCLES 2016 9694/23/O/N/16 3 Read the passage and answer the questions below. 1 Humanity has evolved to its present state of advanced civilization by a process of ‘natural selection’, whereby only the finest members of the species have succeeded in passing on their genes. Life is a form of war, in which those who have the most inventive minds and the strongest and most agile bodies defeat their competitors in order to thrive and to reproduce. Thus war has been an essential element in evolutionary progress. 2 One of the justifications for space exploration is that it has led to the development of materials and equipment which have become very significant in everyday life. War, similarly, brings about major progress in science and technology. Radar, computers, satellites and even the internet were originally developed for military purposes, but we would find it hard to be without them now. 3 Wars bring many economic benefits to the countries which are involved in them. Recruitment into the armed services solves problems of unemployment, while factories no longer stand idle when supplies of tanks, planes, guns and ammunition are urgently required. After the war, the work of reconstruction employs many people. 4 Surprising though it may seem, there are moral benefits to war. It is the context in which the most admirable human qualities, such as courage, endurance and self-sacrifice, are developed and displayed. Our greatest poets, such as Homer, have celebrated heroic deeds in times of war, while generations which have never known war become lazy and self-indulgent. 5 Politicians say they are trying to make peace, and religious people pray for peace, but instead they should be working and praying for war. Peace-mongers are cowards. The only reason for their opposition to war is that they lack the courage to stand against tyranny and injustice. (a) Using the exact words from the passage as far as possible, identify the main conclusion. [2] (b) Using the exact words from the passage as far as possible, identify three intermediate conclusions. [3] (c) Evaluate the strength of the reasoning in the argument. In your answer you should consider any flaws, unstated assumptions and other weaknesses. [5] (d) ‘The most important duty of any government is to live at peace with other countries.’ Write your own short argument to support or challenge this claim. The conclusion of your argument must be stated. Credit will not be given for repeating ideas from the passage. [5]

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® IGCSE is the registered trademark of Cambridge International Examinations. This document consists of 8 printed pages. © UCLES 2016 [Turn over Cambridge International Examinations Cambridge International Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level THINKING SKILLS 9694/23 Paper 2 Critical Thinking October/November 2016 MARK SCHEME Maximum Mark: 45 Published This mark scheme is published as an aid to teachers and candidates, to indicate the requirements of the examination. It shows the basis on which Examiners were instructed to award marks. It does not indicate the details of the discussions that took place at an Examiners’ meeting before marking began, which would have considered the acceptability of alternative answers. Mark schemes should be read in conjunction with the question paper and the Principal Examiner Report for Teachers. Cambridge will not enter into discussions about these mark schemes. Cambridge is publishing the mark schemes for the October/November 2016 series for most Cambridge IGCSE®, Cambridge International A and AS Level components and some Cambridge O Level components.

Page 2 Mark Scheme Syllabus Paper Cambridge International AS/A Level – October/November 2016 9694 23 © UCLES 2016 1 (a) Suggest two pieces of further evidence which, if true, would affect the reliability of Source A, and state the effect in each case. [4] 2 marks for each clear, valid answer. 1 mark for each vague, incomplete or marginal answer. Sample 2-mark answers • If Mr Chan had previous warnings/convictions for dangerous driving: strengthen. • If Mr Brown had poor eyesight and had therefore been unable to see the incident clearly: weaken. • If Mr Brown had a history of making unproven allegations against strangers: weaken. • If Mr Brown had a grudge against MNQ transport or Mr Chan: weaken. • If MNQ’s records confirmed that a lorry was driving down Oxton Road at the relevant time: strengthen. Credit other forms of corroboration, e.g. surveillance camera, Mr Chan’s phone records. Do not credit an answer which is the opposite of one already credited. (b) Is Source C an argument? Briefly justify your answer. [2] 2 marks for a correct answer with accurate explanation. 1 mark for a correct answer with vague or generic explanation. 0 marks for correct answer without explanation. 0 marks for incorrect answer with or without explanation. 2-mark answer Yes, it is an argument. The conclusion, “you must withdraw the letter,” is supported by three reasons. 1-mark answer Yes, it is an argument. It consists of a conclusion supported by reasons. (c) Suggest and briefly explain two reasons why Source D is of little use in deciding whether Mr Chan had driven dangerously down Oxton Road. [3] 3 marks for two plausible reasons, at least one of which is developed. 2 marks for one developed reason or for two undeveloped/marginal reasons. 1 mark for one undeveloped/marginal reason. Developed reasons • Mr Lopez has a vested interest to defend his friend Mr Chan, who has asked for his support, and is therefore unlikely to say anything bad about him. • Mr Lopez was not present at the incident, and therefore had no ability to see whether Mr Chan drove dangerously or not.

Page 3 Mark Scheme Syllabus Paper Cambridge International AS/A Level – October/November 2016 9694 23 © UCLES 2016 (d) How likely do you think it is that Mr Chan drove dangerously down Oxton Road? Write a short, reasoned argument to support your conclusion, with critical reference to the evidence provided and considering a plausible alternative conclusion. [6] Level 3 5–6 marks A strong answer, which provides a reasoned argument including thorough evaluation of all or most of the evidence to support an acceptable conclusion in terms of probability and evaluates the plausibility of at least one alternative conclusion. Level 2 3–4 marks An answer which evaluates some of the evidence, draws an acceptable conclusion in terms of probability and may mention the plausibility of at least one alternative conclusion. Level 1 1–2 marks A weak answer, which refers to some of the evidence, possibly including a simple evaluative comment. The conclusion may be unstated or over-stated. Level 0 0 marks No credit-worthy material. Indicative content Possible answers: • It is most probable that Mr Chan did drive dangerously (too fast and while using a mobile phone), but it cannot be proved and so his employers cannot take disciplinary action against him. • It is possible that a different driver from the MNQ company was the person observed driving dangerously. • It is possible that Mr Brown was mistaken, and the driver he observed was actually driving safely. It is unlikely that Mr Brown had any motive for contacting the company apart from a concern for public safety. But he may lack expertise or ability to see clearly and he may have a reputation as a busybody. As indicated in the answer to 1(c), Source D is of little value. The fact that the company withdrew the warning (Source E) shows that the company was unable or unwilling to prove the driver’s guilt, but this does not necessarily imply that he was not guilty.

Page 4 Mark Scheme Syllabus Paper Cambridge International AS/A Level – October/November 2016 9694 23 © UCLES 2016 2 (a) How well does the evidence in Source B support its claim that “Most family doctors have given a placebo to at least one of their patients”? [3] Not very well / not at all [1]. It depends how broadly you define “placebo” [1]. Only 10% of the doctors had prescribed something which was definitely intended as a placebo [1]. Most of the treatments mentioned (complementary medicines and medication approved for other illnesses) may have some benefit to patients independently of the placebo effect [1]. (b) The manufacturers of Obecalp® recommend it particularly for use with children. Suggest and briefly explain two reasons why a placebo might be more useful for children than adults. [4] For each of 2 answers: 2 marks for a clear explanation of a valid reason. 1 mark for an obscure or incomplete explanation or a marginal reason. Specimen 2-mark answers: • Medicines for children tend to be provided by a parent rather than a doctor. Parents may be more likely to make use of placebos. • Medicines for children tend to be dispensed by a parent rather than by patients themselves. So children are less likely than adults to know what they are taking. • Children are likely to trust that their parents would give them only medicine which is likely to make them better. • Children may be more likely to complain of nonspecific or minor illnesses than adults, and placebos are useful mainly for complaints of this kind. • Children are less likely to know about the placebo effect; such knowledge may well undermine the efficacy of any placebo treatment. • Many treatments used for adults are unsuitable for children, so there will be more occasions where conventional medicine is not an option. (c) The author of Source C claims that placebos are based on deception. Identify one point from the sources which is inconsistent with this claim, and briefly explain why it is inconsistent. [2] The second sentence of Source A states, “In one study, patients reported improvements even though they actually knew they were taking a dummy pill.”[1]. This suggests that placebos do not rely on deception for their effectiveness [1] and some doctors prescribing them may therefore tell patients the truth about what they are doing [1].

Page 5 Mark Scheme Syllabus Paper Cambridge International AS/A Level – October/November 2016 9694 23 © UCLES 2016 (d) ‘Doctors should not prescribe treatments which have no active ingredients.’ To what extent do you agree with this claim? Write a short, reasoned argument to support your conclusion, using and evaluating the information provided in Sources A–E. [6] Level 3 5–6 marks A reasoned argument, which uses and evaluates all or most of the evidence provided. Level 2 3–4 marks A simple argument, which uses and/or evaluates evidence. Level 1 1–2 marks A weak answer, which makes some correct reference to evidence but consists of opinion and/or assertion rather than argument or an argument which makes no reference to evidence. Level 0 0 marks No credit-worthy material. Indicative content • It can be argued on the basis of Source A that placebos should be prescribed in appropriate cases, • since they do provide relief. • The efficacy of placebos is confirmed by Source D. • Source E also emphasizes the value of placebos, perhaps especially in the case of children, • but it is clearly biased by its vested interest to promote its product. • As the answer to part (a) indicates, the first line of Source B grossly overstates the findings of the survey. Most of the treatments mentioned there are not ones with “no active ingredients”. • Source C makes several important and valid objections against the use of placebos. • However, if the second sentence of Source A is true, it might even be possible to obtain the beneficial effects without deceit, • which counters one of the points made in Source C.

Page 6 Mark Scheme Syllabus Paper Cambridge International AS/A Level – October/November 2016 9694 23 © UCLES 2016 3 (a) Using the exact words from the passage as far as possible, identify the main conclusion. [2] 2 marks: (instead,) they [politicians and religious people] should be working and praying for war. 1 mark: Recognisable paraphrase of the above. OR Politicians say they are trying to make peace, and religious people pray for peace, but instead they should be working and praying for war. (b) Using the exact words from the passage as far as possible, identify three intermediate conclusions. [3] 1 mark for each of the following, to a maximum of 3: • (Thus) war has been an essential element in evolutionary progress. • War (, similarly,) brings about major progress in science and technology. • Wars bring many economic benefits to the countries which are involved in them. • there are moral benefits to war. • Peace-mongers are cowards. Allow one additional element or one significant omission in each case. If more than three answers are offered, mark the first four only. (c) Evaluate the strength of the reasoning in the argument. In your answer you should consider any flaws, unstated assumptions and other weaknesses. [5] Marks for each evaluative point as follows, up to a maximum of 5 marks: 2 marks: Valid evaluative point, clearly expressed. 1 mark: Weak attempt at a valid evaluative point. Paragraph 1 • Irrelevance: natural selection is a theory about genes, but ‘advanced civilisation’ is result of many other factors. • Ambiguity: the first part of this paragraph relies on ambiguity in the meaning of the word “finest”; this point can alternatively be expressed as an assumption. • Conflation: the argument illegitimately moves from “a form of war” to “war”, as if the two expressions meant the same. Paragraph 2 • Flawed analogy: the costs of space exploration are not comparable with the ‘costs’ of war. • Assumption: the third sentence relies on the assumption that these inventions would not have occurred without war. • Conflation: of ‘military purposes’ and ‘war’: military technologies may be developed in order to deter wars. Paragraph 3 • Assumption: that employment and production are desirable in and of themselves, even if the product does no one any good. • Assumption: that the economic benefits of war are not outweighed by the costs.

Page 7 Mark Scheme Syllabus Paper Cambridge International AS/A Level – October/November 2016 9694 23 © UCLES 2016 Paragraph 4 • Begging the question/circular reasoning: the first sentence begs the question/argues in a circle, by identifying belligerent qualities as “the most admirable”. • Assumption: that there are no other, preferable, ways of developing these admirable qualities. • Generalization: the second sentence illegitimately generalizes from a single example of a poet. • Assumption: that the admirable qualities are not outweighed by bad qualities developed in war. NB Do not credit the second half of the last sentence as an argumentum ad hominem. Paragraph 5 • argumentum ad hominem: second sentence. • Assumption: that wars are fought only to combat “tyranny and injustice” (they often cause it). • Straw man or argumentum ad hominem: final sentence. (d) ‘The most important duty of any government is to live at peace with other countries.’ Write your own short argument to support or challenge this claim. The conclusion of your argument must be stated. Credit will not be given for repeating ideas from the passage. [5] Level 3 4–5 marks Developed, coherent argument. Reasons strongly support conclusion. Development may include intermediate conclusion or apt examples. Simply structured argument – 4 marks. Effective use of IC etc. – 5 marks. Level 2 2–3 marks A simple argument. One reason + conclusion – 2 marks. Two or more separate reasons + conclusion – 3 marks. Level 1 1 mark Some relevant comment. Level 0 0 marks No relevant comment. Maximum 3 marks for wrong conclusion or if conclusion is implied but not stated. No credit for material merely reproduced from the passage.

Page 8 Mark Scheme Syllabus Paper Cambridge International AS/A Level – October/November 2016 9694 23 © UCLES 2016 Specimen level 3 answers Support (119 words) The most significant step in the development of civilization occurred when individuals voluntarily handed over some of their autonomy to an elected government. Before that, everyone’s attention and efforts were devoted to feeding themselves and defending themselves from aggression. They had no energy or time to spare for any activity which was not essential for their own survival. The development of industry and culture became possible when the right and obligation of self-defence were delegated to a government, which levied taxes in order to pay a professional army. This freed the rest of the population to pursue other callings and activities in peace. Therefore the most important duty of any government is to live at peace with other countries. Challenge (103 words) Voters choose a government to look after their own interests. Because most people regard their own financial well-being as their top priority, they expect their government to put economic issues at the top of the national agenda. Admittedly, economic advancement is impeded if the population lack education or if they are at war. So education and defence are important secondary issues, and governments are expected to devote to them some of their efforts and of the national budget. But they are a means to an end. Therefore the most important duty of any government is not to live at peace with other countries.